Bitcoin’s Elusive Bottom: A Tale of Ratios, Bears, and Stubborn Holders

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One might say the bear market bottom on Bitcoin remains as absent as a shy forest creature-spoken of often, seen rarely. The SOPR Ratio lingers at 0.9, far from the mystical 0.55 that once heralded the end of past cycles.

Yes, 0.9. A number as unimpressive as a half-hearted bow from a provincial actor, yet apparently crucial to the fate of digital empires.

A CryptoQuant analyst, with the solemnity of a man announcing the arrival of spring, revealed that the LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio has been the most faithful structural marker in Bitcoin’s bear market chronicles. This is not a tale of price, but of who sells with profit-and who merely pretends to.


Source: CryptoQuant – Bitcoin SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR)

A Ratio Nobody Watches Until It’s Too Late

The SOPR Ratio, in its quiet mathematical dignity, measures the profit gulf between long-term holders and their short-term, more excitable cousins. When its 60-day moving average sinks to around 0.55, history tells us the bear cycle ends. Not “might end,” not “could end”-it ends, as decisively as a Turgenev heroine rejecting a suitor with a polite but devastating smile.

Long-term holders, those stoic souls, cease distributing near a true bottom. Their conviction stiffens. Meanwhile, short-term holders-those who bought the dip with the enthusiasm of a man buying a horse he hasn’t inspected-cling to thin profits, keeping their SOPR aloft. These opposing forces squeeze the ratio downward. Only when it compresses to roughly 0.5 does the market achieve the inversion it has always required.

The price bottom, however, usually arrives before the SMA60 touches 0.55. The indicator is a belated confirmation, like a letter arriving after the wedding has already taken place. Important, yes-but hardly timely.

What 0.9 Actually Means Right Now

At 0.9, long-term holders still enjoy a profit advantage over the newcomers. The gap narrows, but narrowing is not the same as surrender. One does not declare winter over simply because the wind is slightly less cruel.

CryptoQuant’s analysis extends beyond this ratio. The Coinbase Premium remains stubbornly negative. Open interest is weak, like a man who skipped breakfast. The NRPL moving average declines. Individually, these signals whisper. Together, they mutter the same warning.


Source: CryptoQuant – Bitcoin Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL)

The NRPL chart reveals deep negative spikes in early 2022, late 2022 into 2023, and again in early 2026. Each cluster marks a period of heavy realized losses. The current reading dipped below negative $6 billion. The bear, it seems, still roams the forest freely.

Three Cycles. Three Circles. One Pattern.

The SOPR chart displays three red circles-2015, 2019, 2023. Each one rests near the sacred 0.55 floor. Each one preceded a recovery that stretched across cycles. The price low and the structural confirmation arrived in the same season, though not the same day-much like two lovers destined to meet, but delayed by fate’s mischievous hand.

The 2015 bottom had something today’s market lacks: full inversion. Long-term holders sold at a loss. Short-term holders clung to meager profits. The gap closed entirely. The 2023 bottom echoed this. CryptoQuant described these moments as the point when true believers stopped selling because they had already decided to endure whatever storms lay ahead.

We have not reached that point. The ratio must compress further before the structural signal rings out-clear, cold, and undeniable.

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2026-06-15 06:55