Bitcoin Crash Alert: Analyst Predicts 23-42% Drop, But $78K Could Change Everything

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The <a href="https://jpygbp.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom?

Bitcoin has behaved like this in the past, and one crypto expert believes it’s happening again. If previous patterns repeat, the price is likely to go down, not up.

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes Bitcoin’s current price movements are mirroring those of 2021. He’s identified six stages in that cycle, and three have already happened. According to his analysis, the next step will likely be another price drop for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Is Now At The Most Important Stage Of The Playbook

Merlijn analyzes Bitcoin’s price movements using weekly candlestick charts, breaking down each cycle into six stages: distribution, small consolidation, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, and a final price increase. Looking at the 2021 cycle, the chart shows Bitcoin initially sold off near its peak, followed by a period of sideways trading, another sell-off, and then a longer period of price building after the significant market crash.

The analyst believes we’re seeing a familiar pattern repeat itself. He points out that the distribution phase has already happened. Bitcoin previously hit a record high of $126,060 in October 2025, but has since been falling in price, characteristic of a bear market.

After a brief period of stability following its peak, Bitcoin’s price has entered a phase where it’s being redistributed – meaning it’s likely to fall. This is a critical point in its current technical pattern. Instead of another quick price increase, the most likely scenario is a significant drop to a much lower price range where it will begin to accumulate value.

The $78,000 Line That Changes Everything

Merlijn suggests Bitcoin could drop to between $45,000 and $59,000. If past patterns repeat, this indicates there’s potentially one more significant price decrease to come.

Merlijn’s analysis has a key point: if Bitcoin stays above $78,000, it could skip a potential price dip and move straight into a new upward trend. However, if the price falls below $78,000, it’s likely to find support and accumulate between $45,000 and $59,000 before attempting another rally. The most optimistic scenario is Bitcoin consistently closing above $78,000, bypassing the need for this deeper accumulation phase and accelerating the next bull run.

Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test. After briefly falling below $77,000 on May 18th, it’s now trading back around that price. If the price were to drop to $59,000, that would be a roughly 24% decrease, and a fall to $45,000 would represent a more significant 42% correction from its current value.

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2026-05-21 01:30