Silver Price Plummets 47% from Record High: Last Defense Trendline in Focus

by

<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/silver">Silver</a> Price is Down Nearly 50% from Record High, and This Trendline is the Last Defense

Silver (XAG) closed below its 200-day moving average on June 9 for the first time since April 2025. Silver price now trades near $64 after falling about 47% from its January all-time high (ATH) of $121.75.

The recent price drop has broken a key upward trend that was in place throughout the previous market rally. Despite this, a long-term trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is nearing a potential support level it has successfully bounced off of four times in the past.

Silver Loses the 200-Day Moving Average for the First Time Since April 2025

Silver closed below the 200-day moving average on June 9 and extended the decline a day later. The price printed a low at $61.50 on June 11 before a modest bounce to around $64.

The previous close below this average came on April 4, 2025. Back then, silver spent only three days under the line before reclaiming it. The current breakdown looks different because it follows a 47% drawdown rather than a brief pause in an uptrend.

Sellers also took out the support near $69, which aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $36.20 to $121.75. An earlier BeInCrypto analysis had already flagged the risk of a slide to $63.

The next major support sits near $54.50, at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Below that, the $50 area marks strong long-term support and the previous record high. Meanwhile, the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $89 remains the key resistance.

A 4-Year RSI Trendline Faces Its Fifth Test

Despite the overall downward trend in price, there’s a positive sign: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been steadily increasing since May 2022, suggesting potential buying momentum.

The price has rebounded four times – in May 2022, March 2023, October 2023, and April 2025. Interestingly, the April 2025 rebound happened at the same time silver’s price started to rise quickly, moving above its 200-day moving average.

The indicator is currently around 30 and nearing a key trendline for the fifth time. If it bounces off this line, it could signal a shift in momentum and lead to a price increase. However, if the indicator falls below the trendline, it would break a pattern that’s been in place for four years and strongly suggest a continued downward trend.

The signal carries extra weight because a May prediction from BeInCrypto already warned of further losses once key supports failed.

Silver Price Prediction as Precious Metals Sentiment Turns Capitulatory

The price decrease is affecting precious metals as well. Trader BullTheoryio calculated the total losses and shared them on X.

“BREAKING: Over $12.95 trillion has been wiped out from gold and silver in just 132 days. Gold has crashed -26.50% from its January peak… Silver is down -47.69%, wiping out $3.2 TRILLION.”

According to the same post, the selloff happened while the Iran conflict stayed active, oil traded near $90, and inflation remained elevated. These are conditions that have historically favored metals, which makes the decline more striking.

The recent price drop has even drawn jokes from within the Bitcoin community. One on-chain analyst, Checkmatey, made a sarcastic post suggesting Jane Street was resorting to extreme measures – like using a quantum computer to mine asteroids – to artificially increase the supply of metal.

Strong criticism of an investment type often happens right before a major downturn, but it’s not a reliable way to predict when that downturn will occur.

If the RSI trendline holds, the silver price could attempt a recovery to the broken $69 area. A reclaim of that zone would open the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $79. Only a move above the $89 resistance would invalidate the broader bearish structure, a scenario explored in a recent outlook on physical market tightness.

If the current price trend reverses, silver could fall to $54.50 and then $50. Whether silver rises or falls now depends on a key indicator that has accurately predicted its movement for the past four years.

Read More

2026-06-11 23:08