Bitcoin Boom or Mirage? The Bear Market’s Grand Finale

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Bitcoin, that curious contraption with more curves than a Mississippi riverboat, first climbed above eighty thousand dollars on May 4, and the town talked about it like a preacher talks about revival. Crypto Twitter split into factions thicker than fog on the bay-some reckon the months of quiet are done and a bull is stomping at the gate; others call it a false sunrise, predicting prices wandering down to thirty thousand before the real sun shows. One well-known trader has set down his reasons, as solemn as a sermon, and is hawk-eyed sure he’s found the map to fortune.

There ain’t but one road to go, and it’s uphill for Bitcoin

For one, Michaël van de Poppe is convinced there won’t be any rate hikes in the coming future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 95.9% probability that U.S. interest rates will remain unchanged within the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Steady as a plow horse in a corn field, they say; when rates loaf along like that, the bulls start singing hymns.

Secondly, the trader notes “enormous growth within a lot of companies,” and that “crypto will be used as the ultimate rails for AI to provide payments on.” According to Q1, 2026 earnings reports, tech and AI-related firms have seen 40%+ growth, with a merry spillover to financial and industrial outfits, as if the market were a river that runs uphill. Blended year-over-year (YoY) earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 is tracking at 27%-28%, marking the highest quarterly bloom since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, blended YoY revenue growth is around 11.3%, the biggest since Q2/Q3 2022.

Thirdly, ETF net inflows have been strongly positive in the past year, driven by heavy institutional buying. It’s the sort of blood in the water that would make any old shark smile in his sleep.

Wait, there’s more

Other potentially advantageous developments for BTC include the upcoming CLARITY Act vote, talks of a BTC strategic reserve, and the appointment of a new pro-crypto Fed Chair. If the machinery of government keeps turning, it might just grease Bitcoin’s gears.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $81,717, just slightly above its 21-day moving average support zone of $80,955. Maintaining this level is critical for a push towards the next resistance target of $85,000-$88,000, which would again form the basis for a rally to $100K. It’s a curious thing-the market behaves like a mule sometimes, and then, when you least expect it, hops the fence and acts like a thoroughbred.

That said, a major headwind is the current delicate situation between the US and Iran and its ramification for global markets (including higher energy prices and inflation). In such times a feller learns to keep his hat on and his wallet handy, for fortunes have a way of shifting with the weather-and the weather don’t always care for a man’s plans.

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2026-05-12 05:52