Waller’s Fed Chair Odds Surge to 85% as Powell Probe Ends

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Polymarket odds for Waller Fed chair confirmation surge on Powell probe U-turn

As a researcher following the potential nominees for Federal Reserve Chair, I’ve been observing some interesting shifts in the Polymarket odds. Following reports that the Department of Justice will likely close its investigation into Jerome Powell, his chances of being confirmed jumped dramatically – from 27% to 85%. This suggests the removal of a significant obstacle in the Senate confirmation process.

Summary

  • Polymarket traders now assign an 85% chance that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be confirmed as Fed chair before May 15, up from 27% earlier in the day.
  • The move follows reports that the U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to drop its criminal investigation into current Fed chair Jerome Powell, removing a key obstacle in the Senate.
  • Senator Thom Tillis had vowed to block any committee vote on President Trump’s nominee until the Powell probe was “fully and transparently resolved,” giving the DOJ decision major procedural significance.

Following indications that the Justice Department may drop its case against Jerome Powell, prediction markets are now heavily favoring Christopher Waller to become the next Federal Reserve chair. On Polymarket, bets that Waller will be confirmed before May 15th have surged from around 27% to approximately 85% – an increase of over 211% – suggesting traders believe a major obstacle to his confirmation is disappearing.

Although the Waller market functions independently from Polymarket’s more popular contracts predicting the next Fed Chair, both are driven by the same forces: how the odds change based on news surrounding the investigation into Jerome Powell and the views of the Senate Banking Committee. Overall, Kevin Warsh is still the frontrunner to become Fed Chair, with a roughly 94% probability, but markets focused on short-term timelines are now reacting quickly to any updates about the legal issues facing Powell.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping an eye on this situation with Jerome Powell. Earlier this year, it came out that federal prosecutors were looking into him regarding some budget issues with renovations to a couple of old Federal Reserve buildings. This caused a pretty unusual public fight between the Fed and the Trump administration. Thankfully, as of April, Powell hadn’t been charged with anything, and the Justice Department actually dropped the investigation on April 24th. That was a big deal because Senator Tillis said he wouldn’t support anyone to replace Powell unless this investigation was closed, so it removed a potential obstacle.

Senator Tillis, a key member of the Senate Banking Committee, had consistently stated he would prevent any of President Trump’s nominees from advancing through the committee as long as the Justice Department’s investigation was ongoing. News sources like KATV and KOMO News reported this week that Tillis will maintain this stance – blocking the President’s nominee until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into the current Chair Powell. This means the DOJ’s decision is now the key factor determining when the nomination process can move forward.

Now that a potential roadblock seems to be clearing, traders are increasingly optimistic that the Senate will confirm Christopher Waller before Jerome Powell’s current term as Federal Reserve chair ends on May 15th. A platform called Polymarket tracks the likelihood of this happening: its contracts will pay out if Waller is confirmed by the deadline, and won’t pay out if the nomination fails. This explains why even minor positive developments regarding the Department of Justice’s position can significantly impact the predicted chances of confirmation in the short term.

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2026-04-24 18:34