Crypto Winter Dies at $59k Bitcoin Low? Analyst Swears Spring Is Here (For Now)

Kendrick laid out two core “drivers” for this market turnaround last Friday, as if he were unveiling the secret to eternal life rather than explaining why a bunch of digital numbers went up a little.

First, he noted, the spot bitcoin ETFs have been bleeding investor cash faster than a patient leaving the free clinic on Prokhorovka Street after a bad night out: total redemptions have topped $5.72 billion since the second week of May. He also added, with a perfectly straight face, that ETF holders are liquidating their positions to free up cash for the SpaceX initial public offering, because nothing says “sound long-term financial planning” like trading one speculative gamble for another, while pretending it’s a “safe” bet.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX shares did indeed begin trading on Nasdaq Friday at around $150, and have already climbed 26% above their IPO price, because of course they have. It is almost as if the market has collectively forgotten every other IPO that crashed and burned within six months, like that ill-fated state attempt to sell off the old circus lot on Tverskaya in the 90s.

That insatiable demand is already spilling over into the crypto sphere, too: on exchange Hyperliquid, SpaceX’s crypto contracts recently traded at such high volumes they hit a valuation of 2.4 trillion, a number so large it will make your head spin faster than the carousel at Gorky Park on a May holiday weekend. We are not saying anyone is going to lose their entire life savings on this, but we are also not saying they won’t.

Kendrick claims the SpaceX IPO launch may put an end to this specific selling pressure, as if the market’s endless appetite for speculative nonsense will suddenly vanish the second one IPO is listed.

Second, a supposed G7-related peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, if true, could help stop oil prices from escalating. Lower oil prices would subsequently cool the rising U.S. Treasury yields, easing macro pressure on crypto markets. Of course, this is the same deal Trump announced on Truth Social, then immediately backtracked on, saying the deal made public was not what had been agreed and warning Tehran’s officials to quickly “get their act together” like a frustrated apartment building superintendent yelling at tenants for leaving garbage in the hallway. But sure, let’s build a multi-trillion dollar bullish case on that.

To confirm that the market floor is secure, Kendrick is watching three specific metrics over the coming days. He is looking for an announcement on Monday showing that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) purchased more bitcoin this week, as if the entire fate of the global crypto market rests on whether one very online guy decides to buy more digital magic beans. He is also looking for a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this Friday, as international oil prices continue to fall. If we are being fully honest, he is probably also waiting for a stray cat to walk past his office window holding a bitcoin-shaped piece of fish, to confirm the cosmic alignment is finally right.

The price of Brent crude fell to about $87 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around $85 a barrel as U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of a likely peace deal with Iran, mostly because he is still waving that vague deal around like a kid who found a shiny rock in the park and is convinced it’s a diamond.