Bitcoin Breaks Below $80K on PPI Shock: On-chain Reset Faces its Real Test

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<a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Breaks Below $80K on PPI Shock: On-chain Reset Faces its Real Test

Key Takeaways

  • April PPI +1.4% MoM vs. +0.5% forecast, largest since March 2022.
  • BTC at $79,800, below $80K, down 0.50% on the session.
  • Price sits 1,058 dollars below MA200, more than seven cluster-widths beneath MAs.
  • RSI at 31.31, signal at 50.19, spread of 18.88 points: approaching oversold.
  • STH reset structure now under direct pressure at $79,800.

What the inflation print contained

On May 13th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Producer Price Index for April, revealing a significant increase in wholesale prices. The index rose 1.4% in April, much higher than the expected 0.5%. This was the largest monthly jump in wholesale inflation in over two years. Over the past year, wholesale prices have increased by 6.0%, exceeding expectations and reaching levels not seen since December 2022. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also increased by a substantial 1.0% for the month.

The latest inflation data was more concerning than initially expected. A significant rise in energy costs – up 7.8% – was the primary driver of overall price increases in goods, accounting for about three-quarters of the total. Specifically, processed energy goods and diesel fuel saw substantial jumps of 7.8% and 12.6% respectively. These increased costs squeeze businesses’ profits before prices even reach consumers. For cryptocurrency markets, this pressure on producer margins reduces the amount of money available for investments in riskier assets like Bitcoin. Following the release of this data, Bitcoin’s price fell from around $81,500 to $79,800, a direct result of investors reassessing expectations for future interest rate changes.

How the price chart absorbed the shock

As of 13:45 UTC on May 13, Bitcoin was trading at $79,800.01 on Binance, a decrease of 0.50% for the day, with the lowest price reaching $79,780. Notably, the current one-hour candle has already seen 696 BTC traded – almost six times the total volume (122 BTC) from the previous hour. This significant jump in trading volume clearly indicates strong conviction behind this price movement.

The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are all trending upwards and positioned correctly, with the 50-day average at $81,008, the 100-day at $80,957, and the 200-day at $80,858. The difference between the fastest (50-day) and slowest (200-day) averages is $151. Currently, the price of Bitcoin at $79,800 is $1,058 below the 200-day moving average, indicating a significant distance below this established upward trend, and there are no signs of this trend reversing downwards yet.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 31.31, significantly below its signal line, and this drop happened with a large amount of trading volume. This isn’t a typical, small reaction to market conditions – it suggests a more serious downturn. The gap between the RSI and its signal line is wider than it has been throughout this observed period. While the RSI is nearing oversold levels on the hourly chart, it hasn’t reached them yet, meaning the price could still fall further before a recovery is likely.

What the STH data says about the level now being broken

According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, the $80,000–$81,000 range is a key price level. With the current price now falling below this range, the data suggests a potentially stronger downward trend.

Analyzing three complete Bitcoin price cycles on Binance (starting August 2023), the ratio of profits to losses for short-term Bitcoin holders has accurately predicted where each cycle was. At the lowest point of the 2023 bear market (around $27,680), profits and losses were roughly equal, with daily losses of about $570,000. When the market started to rise in November 2023, profits were seven times higher than losses – $3.56 million in profits versus $502,000 in losses. The period leading up to the halving in February–March 2024 saw profits still dominating, at 3.8 times higher than losses ($5.6 million daily, with Bitcoin around $59,000). Even at the peak of the cycle in September–October 2025 (averaging $113,775), profits were still 2.15 times greater than losses, despite lower overall volume (6,439 BTC), indicating that Bitcoin was being sold at record prices without causing a market crash.

February 6, 2026, saw a significant drop in value on Binance. A single trading session costing $67,410 resulted in $10.26 million in losses – the highest amount recorded in our data. Since then, daily losses have decreased dramatically, falling to $197,000 this week – a 51-fold reduction.

Bitcoin briefly reached almost $81,000 today, where the amount of profit taken out roughly matched the amount of losses. This is similar to what happened at the low point of the 2023 bear market. One analyst, Crazzyblockk, described it as a “reset.” The price dropping below $80,000, with significant trading volume, is testing that idea, but doesn’t necessarily disprove it. A single, high-volume trading session doesn’t indicate a major shift; a sustained close below the ‘reset’ level would be needed to confirm a structural breakdown.

How the market reacts to today’s price drop (PPI shock) depends on its current state. If there’s a lot of profit-taking happening, it will likely lead to selling. Since the market was already near a break-even point, this drop is a test to see if the recent recovery is solid or if investors will panic due to broader economic concerns. The price is currently below $80,000, and the selling volume is significant. The next trading session will reveal whether this is just a continuation of the recent price range or the start of another sharp decline, not what happens in this single trading period.

What the coming sessions will confirm or deny

Bitcoin could see a limited bounce if it closes above $80,858, along with an increase in its Relative Strength Index (RSI). A more substantial recovery would need a daily close above $81,008 within the next five trading days. If either of these levels is reached with confirmation from the RSI, it suggests the recent price drop was a temporary correction to shake out weaker positions, rather than a sign of a larger, more concerning trend.

If the price of Bitcoin closes at or below $79,780 for a sustained period, with trading volume consistently above 800 BTC per hour for at least three hours, it would signal a significant shift in the market. This would suggest that the current short-term holder reset pattern is failing due to broader market pressure, potentially leading to another wave of selling. Historically, this type of event has been followed by a further price drop before any lasting recovery begins.

This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-13 17:40