Bitcoin’s Big Gamble: Will It Break Records or Crash? 💸📉

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Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing-your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. 🚀

Grab a coffee as markets brace for another pivotal moment. From Washington’s shutdown to deep-pocketed crypto whales pushing leverage, forces are converging that could propel Bitcoin (BTC) into uncharted territory. Analysts find themselves split on whether this strength is solid or fragile. 🤷‍♂️

Crypto News of the Day: Geoff Kendrick Sees Bitcoin Ready for $135,000 as Shutdown Looms 🧠

Bitcoin may be on the brink of a fresh all-time high, according to Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick. “Aha! The shutdown shall be its catalyst!” 🎩

In an exclusive email to BeInCrypto, Kendrick said he expects Bitcoin to “print a fresh all-time-high next week” and push toward his long-held Q3 target of $135,000, reported in a recent US Crypto News publication. “Aha! The stars align!” 🌟

The catalyst, he argues, lies in the dynamics of the US government shutdown. “A government in chaos? Perfect for a digital phoenix!” 🔥

“The shutdown matters this time around. During the previous Trump shutdown (December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019), Bitcoin was in a different place than it is now, so it did little. However, this year, Bitcoin traded with US government risks, as best shown by its relationship to US treasury term premium,” Kendrick explained.

On Polymarket, traders are pricing a 60% probability that the shutdown lasts between 10 and 29 days, suggesting no quick resolution. “A marathon, not a sprint!” 🏃‍♂️

For Kendrick, this creates an extended environment in which Bitcoin can outperform as a hedge against fiscal gridlock and US credit stress. “A hedge? More like a gamble!” 🎲

The other key driver lies in ETF flows. Gold has been outperforming Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, but Kendrick expects that trend to reverse. “Gold, thy time is nigh!” ⚔️

“Net Bitcoin ETF inflows are now at USD58bn, of which USD23bn has been in 2025. I would expect at least another $20 billion by year-end, a number which would make my $200,000 year-end forecast possible,” he said.

With Uptober underway and liquidity dynamics turning in Bitcoin’s favor, Kendrick believes the market is set to reward holders with a new peak in the coming days. “A peak? Or a precipice?” 🧗‍♂️

Perp Whales Drive Aggressive Longs, Raising Both Hopes and Risks ⚠️

While macro tailwinds dominate headlines, on-chain and derivatives data indicate growing momentum for Bitcoin’s next breakout. Analysts at CryptoQuant and other firms highlight a surge in perpetual futures activity led by perp whales. “The whales are swimming in gold!” 🐋

“Bitcoin perp whales went long heavily on OKX, Bybit, HTX. The taker buy ratio on OKX is the highest since January 2023,” wrote Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant.

According to Ki, the current setup marks the fourth attempt to break Bitcoin’s ATH, only this time, perp whales are on the frontline.  

4th attempt to break Bitcoin ATH, but this time with perp whales.

– Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 3, 2025

Supporting this, analyst Maartunn observed that since the monthly open, taker buy volume has exceeded sell volume by roughly $1.8 billion. “A tidal wave of buyers!” 🌊

“Futures buyers are stepping up…clear sign of aggressive long positioning,” Maartunn stated.

This activity has fueled speculation that a leveraged rally may be in the works. In a recent analysis, Maartunn explained that rallies powered primarily by borrowed capital rather than long-term spot accumulation are inherently fragile. “A house of cards, but with more debt!” 🏚️

“It might look impressive for a little while, but it’s incredibly unstable and just waiting for a reason to fall over,” he warned.

The risk is that heavy long positioning could trigger cascading liquidations if momentum falters, suppressing spot demand even as prices rise. “A crash, but delayed!” 🚨

This makes current valuations more speculative than sustainable. Still, with whale positioning aligned with macro catalysts like the government shutdown and ETF flows, the conditions appear ripe for Bitcoin to finally clear its all-time high barrier. “Or crash into the abyss!” 🌌

Chart of the Day 📈

Byte-Sized Alpha 🧠

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview 📊

Company At the Close of October 2 Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR) $353.33 $352.00 (-0.026%)
Coinbase (COIN) $372.07 $373.50 (+0.38%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) $36.52 $36.89 (+1.01%)
MARA Holdings (MARA) $18.79 $18.98 (+1.01%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT) $19.25 $19.36 (+0.57%)
Core Scientific (CORZ) $18.10 $18.13 (+0.17%)

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2025-10-03 17:50