Bitcoin’s price has recovered above $80,000, which has boosted confidence in the crypto market. However, one crypto expert, known as Crypto Patel on X, cautions that this recovery might be happening at a risky time. Patel points out that Bitcoin has entered a phase of its four-year price cycle that has historically led to significant quarterly drops.
Bitcoin Is Repeating A Mid-Term Year Pattern
Bitcoin recently surpassed $80,000, causing the Coinmarketcap Fear and Greed Index to move towards neutral-to-positive levels. Increased investment into Bitcoin ETFs during April and May contributed to this rise, though the price is still 35.5% below its highest point in October 2025. Overall, Bitcoin is starting May with promising momentum. However, analyst Crypto Patel points out that Bitcoin has historically experienced price drops during the middle of the year, a pattern observed in multiple market cycles.
The analyst highlighted similar price patterns from May in past years, suggesting a typical mid-year slowdown. A chart accompanying his analysis showed four separate bear markets, each clearly marked with the extent of the price drop.
Bitcoin has experienced significant price drops in May of 2014, 2018, and 2022, each time falling between 68% and 76%. This pattern – a peak in May followed by a major crash – has been observed three times in midterm election years. Crypto Patel suggests this isn’t random, but a recurring cycle in Bitcoin’s price behavior.
The chart forecasts a continuing trend through 2026, suggesting prices could fall another 66.54% from where they are now. This represents a medium-term projection.
The Relief Rally Trap
Based on current market analysis, Bitcoin appears to be at a critical turning point, similar to where previous price declines started. Crypto Patel estimates, using historical patterns, that the lowest Bitcoin could fall in this cycle is between $30,000 and $50,000.
The tricky thing about Patel’s view is that the Bitcoin market isn’t entirely negative right now. As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $81,530 and is nearing a breakout above a key technical level of $83,000.
Bitcoin traded sideways between $60,000 and $72,000 for about two months before recently starting to rise again. Many believe this rise confirms the price has hit its lowest point and the worst of the downturn is over. However, one crypto expert disagrees, warning that this belief could be a mistake. They stated simply, “People think the price drop is over, but that’s exactly what the trap is designed to make you think.”
Some experts believe the typical four-year pattern for Bitcoin suggests the current downturn could last until the end of the year before it finally hits its lowest point.
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2026-05-06 18:40