Bitcoin’s Profit Supply Drops-Are We About to See a Market Shake-Up?

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Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin profit supply sinks to 59%, dangerously close to bear market levels, hinting at a potential accumulation phase for investors who are brave enough.
  • Half of Bitcoin holders are currently swimming in losses-sounds like a prime buying opportunity, doesn’t it?
  • The supply held by long-term holders is rising, a sign that some investors are digging in their heels despite the chaotic market.

Bitcoin’s profit levels have sunk to ranges normally reserved for bear markets, giving the impression that caution should be the name of the game for anyone invested in this crypto rollercoaster. Darkfost, a CryptoQuant analyst, pointed out that a staggering portion of Bitcoin holders are currently at a loss.

“Right now, nearly half of all BTC is held at a loss,” he remarked, noting the rare and somewhat suspicious situation. Just 59% of Bitcoin’s total supply is still in profit, far below the comfortable historical average of 75%. No one’s rushing to sell just yet, though. Something is brewing-perhaps it’s the calm before the strategic accumulation storm.

Despite the gloom, this doesn’t seem like a panic-driven market; more like a waiting game, where investors are carefully holding their coins for the right moment to strike. Historically, when profits surge past 90%, the market tends to peak and prompt a wave of selling. But when the index hovers between 45% and 60%, that’s usually the sweet spot for those eager to accumulate.

Darkfost’s advice? “Accumulate when losses are at their worst, and take profits when the market’s on fire.” Sounds like a good rule to follow… if you can stomach the ride.

Long-term holder supply shifts

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply is starting to tick upward. Darkfost noticed, “The supply held by Long-Term Holders is increasing steadily-this is generally considered a positive and constructive signal.”

This shift occurs as coins held for over six months move from short-term to long-term hands. In other words, it’s clear that more investors are holding on for dear life, rather than jumping off the rollercoaster. But don’t get too comfortable, because similar patterns in past bear markets haven’t always translated into glorious price rallies.

To put things into perspective, the LTH supply moved from -674,000 BTC at the end of November to a net increase of +308,000 BTC. That’s a decent-sized shift, but the question remains-will it be enough to move the needle on Bitcoin’s price?

Market volatility and external factors

It’s not just the Bitcoin market that’s rocking and rolling. External factors are also playing their part. After dipping to around $67,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin made a sharp rebound to $70,900. The recovery followed a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which sent oil prices plunging, providing some relief for non-yielding risk assets like Bitcoin.

As of publication, Bitcoin is trading near $71,150, with a 24-hour trading volume of $37.52 billion. Quite the movement for such a volatile asset!

Bitfinex analysts added, “A 15-16% collapse in crude could bring forward potential cuts… that’s a major tailwind for Bitcoin and similar risk assets.” Let’s see if that holds true or if it’s just wishful thinking in this wild market.

But wait, there’s more! Liquidations are running rampant. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin took the lead with $85.33 million in forced closures, followed closely by Ethereum at $56.53 million. The entire crypto market saw $268 million worth of liquidations in just 24 hours. It’s clear that this market is as fragile as a house of cards on a windy day, with traders stacking leverage like it’s going out of style.

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2026-04-09 15:17