Solana’s Faithful Abandon Ship as $94 Rally Stumbles Toward Reality

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At first glance, the Solana price chart resembles a tired soldier returning from an overly optimistic campaign. The token is still down roughly 10% month-on-month – a quiet confession that the wider crypto market has cooled, like tea forgotten on a Siberian windowsill. And yet, hidden inside that dreary statistic lies a moment of almost heroic enthusiasm. Between February 6 and March 4, Solana staged a dramatic counterattack, climbing from around $67 to $94. Nearly 40% in less than a month – the kind of rise that makes traders pound their desks and whisper, “This time it will be different.”

But markets, like history, possess a cruel sense of irony. Beneath the triumphant trumpet of the rally lurked a rather inconvenient detail: some of Solana’s most devoted believers looked at the surge, scratched their heads, and quietly headed for the exit.

The Rally to $94 Failed to Convince Its Oldest Holders

In theory – and economists adore theory – long-term holders serve as the granite foundation of any rally. When prices rise and these stoic investors buy more, analysts declare it a sign of profound conviction. Charts glow. Threads on social media grow philosophical. Coffee consumption spikes.

But Solana’s recent rally refused to follow this noble script.

According to HODL Waves data – a metric that neatly divides investors by how long they have clung to their tokens – holders of SOL for three years or longer controlled about 9.77% of supply on February 3. Then, as the rally began on February 6, something peculiar happened. Beginning February 8, these seasoned veterans began trimming their positions.

One might imagine them leaning back in their chairs and muttering, “Ah yes, we have seen this movie before.”

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Most of the selling occurred early, almost impatiently, as if the veterans wished to leave the theater before the dramatic third act. By the time Solana reached its proud summit of $94 on March 4, these oldest holders had barely returned. Their share of supply had slipped to roughly 7.28%.

Thus the uncomfortable truth emerges: the loudest believers were not the oldest believers. And in markets, as in life, when the elders quietly step away from the celebration, it is often wise to check where the exits are.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Suggests Momentum Is Fading, But a Bigger Risk Looms

The chart, that relentless historian of human optimism, has already begun whispering warnings.

Between November 26 and March 4, Solana formed a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe – a phrase analysts pronounce with grave seriousness while secretly enjoying the drama of it. The pattern appears when price prints a lower high while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) produces a higher high.

In plainer terms: the crowd is cheering louder, but the parade is moving slower.

Such divergences often appear during broader downtrends and signal continuation – the market equivalent of realizing the winter has not ended simply because one warm day appeared in February.

Indeed, Solana still sits about 34% lower than it did three months ago. The grand narrative remains bearish, despite the recent burst of enthusiasm.

Shortly after the price reached $94 on March 4, the divergence began fulfilling its quiet prophecy. Since then, Solana has already slipped about 7%. Sellers, it seems, have rediscovered their confidence – and perhaps their calculators.

Yet one technical guardian still stands between Solana and a deeper decline.

Despite the pullback, the token remains above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) – a line that tracks the average price over the past 20 days but favors recent action, much like investors who only remember what happened yesterday.

This level has served repeatedly as a decisive boundary. When Solana loses the 20-day EMA, declines tend to accelerate with surprising enthusiasm.

For example, when the token slipped below this level around January 18 near $137, the fall eventually extended to roughly $67 by February 6 – a descent that surely caused several keyboards to suffer emotional damage.

A similar signal earlier this year triggered an 11% drop after Solana fell beneath the same EMA.

The difference now is subtle yet troubling: the market may lack a sufficiently stubborn group of buyers to defend this line. The oldest holders already lightened their positions during the rally, and now another class of investors appears to be reconsidering their faith.

Long-Term Holders Are Now Selling as Solana Price Tests Its Cost Basis

While the oldest holders were quietly leaving the rally, mid-to-long-term investors had been doing the opposite. According to the Hodler Net Position Change metric, investors holding for more than 155 days had been steadily accumulating since December 24, 2025.

For weeks the data told a comforting story of consistent accumulation – a slow, determined gathering of coins, like villagers storing food for winter.

But recently, the story took a darker turn.

The metric flipped negative to roughly -635,750 SOL, indicating that selling has now overtaken the previous month’s accumulation.

This shift arrives at an inconvenient moment because Solana is currently trading inside a major cost-basis cluster between $86.80 and $87.82. Roughly 13.1 million SOL were accumulated here, making it one of the chart’s strongest support zones.

Investors often defend such levels fiercely, if only to avoid admitting they bought at exactly the wrong time.

But markets are merciless teachers. When these levels break, reactions tend to be swift and unsentimental.

If Solana fails to reclaim $87.82 – the overlapping level between price and cluster support – the token could slip below both its 20-day EMA and its strongest cost-basis zone. In that scenario, the path may open toward $77.67, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

Should weakness continue, the decline could extend to $73.21 or even $67.52 – the very level from which February’s heroic rally began.

Of course, markets adore irony. If buyers regain control, the bearish outlook could quickly weaken. For momentum to recover, Solana would need to reclaim $94.09 – the same peak that once looked like the start of a glorious new chapter.

For now, however, Solana sits at a crossroads. The rally to $94 proved that short-term enthusiasm still exists. Yet without the steadfast backing of its oldest holders, the move risks fading – particularly if selling pressure persists around the $86-$87 support zone.

And so the chart waits patiently, like a seasoned chronicler, ready to record the next act in humanity’s eternal struggle between hope, greed, and the suspiciously convenient phrase: “buy the dip.”

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2026-03-06 20:36