It’s hard to believe, but we’re already two months into 2026 and spring is just around the corner. After a couple of really difficult years for movie theaters in the US – things have been bad since the pandemic began – many hoped this year would finally bring improvement. Sadly, that’s not happening. In fact, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the worst years ever for the box office, considering how much money theaters could have made.
With major movie theater companies like AMC and Regal recently warning about potential difficulties starting in late 2025, is there any positive news for the first three months of this year? Is there any sign that the film industry might recover?
Here’s a look at how this year is progressing compared to 2025, which almost didn’t manage to be better than the very difficult year of 2024.
January
January 2025 saw a slow start for movie theaters in the US. Films that had been released in late 2024 continued to draw audiences, with Mufasa: The Lion King performing best in the early weeks. Flight Risk and Den of Thieves 2: Pantera also brought in some revenue, but overall, box office numbers for the month were lower than in previous years.
Wow, January 2026 was a great month for movies! It was way better than the year before, mostly because all those big movies that came out in December 2025 kept bringing in money. Seriously, just Avatar: Fire and Ash made over $134 million here in the US during January! And other movies that were already out, like Zootopia 2, also added a lot to the total. Altogether, the box office made around $619.5 million domestically that month – a really solid increase from January 2025.
January 2026 was significantly more successful than January 2025, primarily because films that did well during the holidays continued to perform strongly in the new year. This initially led to optimism within the film industry, but that positive trend has recently stalled.
February
February 2025 was a strong month for movie revenue, largely thanks to the blockbuster hit Captain America: Brave New World, which earned around $200.5 million in the US. Other films like Dog Man and Heart Eyes also contributed to the month’s success. Because of this one major film, February 2025 significantly outperformed January in terms of total earnings.
February 2026 saw a variety of moderately successful films, rather than one huge blockbuster. Movies like Wuthering Heights, GOAT, Send Help, and Crime 101 all performed well, but none reached the level of the biggest hit from February 2025. Overall, February 2026 has been reasonably healthy, and its success hasn’t depended on a single, massive film. With only a few days left in the month, it doesn’t look like there will be any unexpectedly large box office numbers.
February 2025 saw a big boost from one very popular superhero movie, which significantly increased overall box office numbers for the month. February 2026, however, had more consistent performance from several films that were moderately successful. While movies like GOAT and Wuthering Heights may gain some recognition for earning revenue through streaming, they didn’t attract large audiences to movie theaters.
Comparing the total sales from the first two months of each year gives us a better understanding of how well we’re doing overall.
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January and February 2025 combined: Approximately $987.9 million domestically through February 24.
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January and February 2026 combined: Approximately $991.9 million domestically through February 24.
Although January 2026 performed much better than January 2025, and February 2025 was possibly slightly stronger than February 2026, overall, by the end of February, 2026 was ahead by about $4 million.
But here’s the problem…
So far in January and February of 2026, sales are considerably lower than they were at this point in 2025, even when accounting for inflation. Current projections suggest the rest of the year won’t be enough to close that gap. In fact, 2025’s total sales, adjusted for inflation, were just over $1 billion. This means 2026 is currently lagging behind by roughly $26 million. This is surprising, especially considering the boost 2026 received from Avatar, while 2025 was impacted by a poorly performing Marvel film – a result many in Hollywood didn’t anticipate.
Some people think the film will easily surpass $26 million in earnings with four days of ticket sales still to count. However, movie ticket prices have increased much faster than general inflation. So, to get a more accurate picture, you’d really need to double that $26 million figure – and that’s probably a pretty good estimate of the final total.
Despite the challenges, there’s growing hope that things like artificial intelligence and independent filmmakers could actually help revitalize movie theaters and prevent them from disappearing.
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2026-02-24 20:57