As a researcher with a background in finance and experience in following the cryptocurrency market, I find the second quarter of 2024 a disappointing one for Bitcoin (BTC) investors. After an optimistic start to the year, with predictions of $100,000 bitcoin at some point, the selling pressure during April and June has left the price struggling not to drop below $60,000 as the quarter comes to a close.
In the opening months of 2024, bitcoin (BTC) experienced a robust surge, leading some bulls to anticipate a price tag of $100,000 at some point during the year. However, persistent selling pressure in April and June, punctuated only by a brief rebound in May, has left the price precariously close to dipping below the $60,000 mark as the quarter comes to an end.
Positive catalysts vanish
The price decline of Bitcoin during the second quarter may be perceived as a correction instead of a bear market trend. This perspective is based on its significant gain of almost five times its value from January 2023 lows to an all-time high above $73,500 in mid-March this year.
The expected approval of a bitcoin ETF and subsequent inflows into new funds significantly fueled the cryptocurrency’s surge, as did the speculation surrounding potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, inflation has yet to comply with this scenario, preventing any monetary policy adjustments in the U.S. Surprisingly, some Federal Reserve members have even indicated that no rate reductions will occur this year.
Amidst waning ETF inflows that sometimes turn into outflows, and fading expectations of decreasing interest rates, investors seem to be holding back, waiting for a fresh motivation to enter the market.
More pain in store in Q3?
As a financial analyst at 10X Research, I’ve identified ten factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent downtrend, which may push its price down to $55,000 in the upcoming weeks. Among these reasons is the increasing interest from trend-following investment funds, who are likely to capitalize on this market movement by entering short positions.
Moreover, some bulls were elated that the presidential debate appeared to lean toward Donald Trump’s favor – given his recent pro-crypto and pro-bitcoin stance. However, Thielen posited that Biden’s subpar performance during the debate increased the likelihood of a stronger Democratic challenger emerging for the November election.
As a crypto investor, I’d like to bring your attention to the seasonal trend in the market. Historically, the third quarter has been the least profitable one for me, with an average return of only around 5% over the past 13 years. Contrastingly, the second and fourth quarters have yielded significantly higher returns, averaging above 60% each.
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2024-06-28 18:56