As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have learned to navigate through the ebb and flow of market dynamics with a calm and composed demeanor. The upcoming Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry on Friday presents an interesting scenario, one that I have seen many times before, albeit in different contexts.
Approximately 18,800 Bitcoin options agreements are set to expire on Friday, October 11th, with a total potential worth of approximately $1.1 billion.
In simpler terms, today’s expiration of options resembles the one from last week due to a decrease in implied volatility. Since these expiration events are now less significant, they are not expected to influence the current market prices, which have been falling this week.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s collection of Bitcoin options has a nearly balanced number of long (call) and short (put) contracts, with a ratio of approximately 0.91. This indicates that the potential losses for long and short positions are fairly close. The level at which the majority of these losses might occur is around $62,000, which is about $1,500 above the current market price.
Furthermore, the Open Interest (OI) remains substantial for options contracts with an expiration price of $70,000, currently standing at approximately $790 million. Conversely, the OI for options contracts with a strike price of $80,000 has decreased to around $723 million. As per Deribit’s data, there is still a significant amount of open interest, roughly $964 million, associated with options contracts having a strike price of $100,000.
According to Greeks Live, the markets showed signs of further deterioration, and the significant $60,000 mark is currently under intense debate among traders.
During the initial fortnight of Q4 this year, we’ve experienced a slump. Similarly, the mood in the options market is gloomy, pushing our current options position to an all-time low since 2023.
On October 11th, there are upcoming expirations for 11,000 BTC options with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.91, a Maxpain level at approximately $62,000 per Bitcoin, and an overall value of around $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, 212,000 ETH options are also set to expire, boasting a lower Put-Call Ratio of 0.4, a Maxpain point near $2,450 per Ethereum, and a notional value of around $510 million. This means that there is a higher probability for BTC option holders to realize losses (Put options), while ETH option holders may have a lower likelihood of experiencing losses.
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) October 11, 2024
On the contrary, Greeks believe that a slow market can also foster fresh trading chances and is ideal for constructing medium-term to long-term call options at a lower price point.
Apart from the Bitcoin options currently in play today, there are approximately 212,000 Ethereum options approaching maturity this upcoming day. The put/call ratio stands at 0.4, with a significant “max pain point” set at around $2,450 and an overall value of $510 million. As a result, the total expiring crypto options for Friday will amount to approximately $1.6 billion for the week.
Crypto Market Outlook
This week, spot markets have been gradually pulling back, causing their total value to decrease by about 1.4% or roughly $32 billion, leaving them currently valued at around $2.21 trillion. For over six months, these markets have essentially maintained the same level without any significant movement.
On Thursday evening, Bitcoin dipped down to approximately $58,900 in later trades. However, it managed to bounce back during the early hours of Friday’s Asian trading session, reclaiming around $60,500. Over the past few weeks since late September, this digital asset has experienced a decline exceeding 8%. Unfortunately, the anticipated market rally dubbed as “Uptober” hasn’t appeared yet.
At the moment of writing, Ethereum had shown a bearish trend and dropped to $2,335 before briefly recovering to $2,400. However, concerns have been escalating as whispers circulate about the Chinese government potentially selling a large amount of ETH that was seized from the PlusToken Ponzi scheme.
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2024-10-11 08:01