As a seasoned researcher with extensive experience in the crypto space, I have closely followed the developments surrounding Mt. Gox and its impact on Bitcoin markets. The recent news of $3 billion worth of Bitcoin being moved from Mt. Gox to Kraken has sparked renewed concerns about the potential market-moving effects of this sale. However, based on my analysis of relevant data, I believe that the Mt. Gox FUD is overestimated.
The founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics firm, shared with his 355,000 followers on July 17 that the rumors or fears surrounding Mt. Gox are being exaggerated.
I examined a growth rate graph the other day and noticed an intriguing trend in the Bitcoin market. The market capitalization was growing faster than the realized capitalization, indicating a robust demand from investors.
Since last year, $224 billion in Bitcoin sold, yet prices are up 350%, he added.
MtGox FUD is overestimated.
The market capitalization of Bitcoin has grown more rapidly than its realized capitalization since 2023, indicative of robust demand. Despite the sale of approximately $224 billion worth of Bitcoins during this period, its price has still surged by over 350%.
Despite MtGox selling $3 billion on Kraken during this cryptocurrency bull market, it represents only a 1% increase in the total realized capital gain – a manageable amount for the current market’s liquidity.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 16, 2024
The Mt. Gox Impact
“Mt. Gox’s $3 billion in sellable cryptocurrencies represents only 1% of the overall realized capitalization growth during this bull market for me. In other words, this manageable liquidity influx isn’t a cause for concern.” Realized capitalization is an alternative to market capitalization, where each transaction’s value is based on the price at the time of the last transaction instead of its current value.
Approximately one-third plus some extra of the Bitcoin held by the bankrupt exchange’s creditors has already been dispersed, as per CryptoQuant’s latest update on July 17th, indicating a distribution ratio of 36%.
“The trustee holds 141,686 BTC, which will be distributed over time,” it added.
On July 16, approximately $3 billion worth of Bitcoin, equivalent to 48,641 units, was transferred from Mt. Gox’s cold wallet to a wallet at the Kraken exchange, based on data from the analytical tool Arkham.
When Kraken announced the news, they mentioned having received the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash funds from the Mt. Gox Trustee. However, they cautioned users to expect a waiting period of 7-14 days before these funds are credited into their respective accounts.
As a data analyst at Arkham Intelligence, I can tell you that based on our latest findings, approximately 90,344 Bitcoins, currently valued at around $5.87 billion, are still held in the wallet associated with Mt. Gox.
BTC Recipients Targeted
As a researcher studying cybersecurity trends, I’ve come across recent reports from Reddit users claiming unauthorized access attempts on their Mt. Gox and Kraken accounts. Given the significant BTC holdings in these users’ accounts, they have unfortunately become attractive targets for scammers and hackers.
Instead of dipping down to $62,500 earlier in the week, Bitcoin’s price has stayed relatively stable around the $65,000 mark for the previous two days.
As a researcher studying market trends, I’ve observed that the market response following the German government selloff has been similar to what we’re seeing now with Bitcoin (BTC). However, for the trend to reverse and potential gains to continue, BTC must first surmount the resistance level at $66,000.
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2024-07-18 16:09