As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market cycles and trends. The current state of Ethereum against Bitcoin is reminiscent of some of the bearish periods we’ve witnessed in the past. However, it’s important to remember that every cycle has its low points before the upward swing.
Since the start of 2021, Ethereum has reached its lowest point relative to Bitcoin, with the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio persistently weakening further.
The ratio is a measure of the price of ETH in Bitcoin terms, not in US dollars. Despite falling 21% from its all-time high, Bitcoin has remained robust, whereas Ethereum remains down 53% from its peak in 2021.
On September 16th, Benjamin Cowen of ITC Crypto expressed his belief that the ETH/BTC ratio could potentially reach a bottom within the range of 0.03 to 0.04 by the end of 2024 or early 2025, after which it might start increasing.
It’s almost over.
I think #ETH / #BTC will likely bottom between 0.03-0.04 and then trend up in 2025.
It could bottom as early as this week or as late as December
Based on prior capitulations, I think it will happen sooner rather than later
Will make a video about it tomorrow
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 16, 2024
He mentioned that it might occur as soon as this week or as late as December, but “given past trends, I anticipate it will happen more quickly than later.
Whales Offloading ETH
The leader of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, noted the decline in the price of Ethereum, stating that the ratio of Ether to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) recently dropped to a level below 0.03 for the first time in approximately three and a half years.
ETHBTC just traded on a 0.03 handle for the first time in 3.5 years (apr 2021)
-53% since the merge in sep 2022
what stops this train?
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 15, 2024
As per ‘Master Kenobi’, the analyst, these patterns suggest that Bitcoin halvings are followed by a decline in the ETH/BTC pair. In past cycles, trend reversals have happened between 168 and 224 days post the Bitcoin halving event. He further stated that a reversal could occur soon as we are now approximately 150 days following the halving, based on this historical pattern.
“Fundamentally, nothing has changed for Ethereum in a negative way,” he said before adding:
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the recent market fluctuations seem to be fueled by a great deal of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). It seems like they are trying to coerce us into selling our Ethereum at lower prices. However, it’s crucial to remember that beneath this turbulence, the fundamental strength of Ethereum remains robust. This apparent downward pressure appears to be a strategy aimed at shaking out inexperienced or less committed investors.
On September 16th, Galaxy Trading noted a particularly low confidence or optimism level towards Ethereum, similar to what was seen in 2017, and then went on to say:
I think it’s quite astonishing how easily people seem to overlook the potential for rapid growth in Ethereum (ETH) when it begins its upward trend.
Currently, ETH is nearing a significant level of support it has not encountered since it was first introduced. It’s being advised that this isn’t a moment for pessimism.
Half of my feed is ETH FUD at this point.
— antiprosynthesis.eth ⟠ (@antiprosynth) September 15, 2024
ETH Price Outlook
According to Colin Wu, a noted industry analyst, on September 16th, it was reported that an “ancient whale” (a large cryptocurrency holder) who received 16,636 ETH from ShapeShift at around $5.23 per coin in February 2016 has now begun to sell these tokens.
This has added to the negative sentiment sending ETH plunging 6% on the day, dumping the asset to an intraday low of $2,260 during Monday morning trading in Asia.
ETH prices are currently at their lowest point since January; however, there’s a strong foundation beneath these levels that could persist until the broader market outlook becomes more optimistic.
Even renowned analysts were piling on the ETH FUD:
$ETH
How it started How it’s going
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) September 16, 2024
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2024-09-16 14:53