Warner Bros.’s Big Bet on One Battle After Another Hasn’t Paid Off Just Yet

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Over the weekend, writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another achieved a notable success in the ongoing competition for viewers, which has captivated Hollywood since March. The action-dramedy, inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel, Vineland, earned $22.4 million, securing the number one position among new releases in theaters. While slightly below initial predictions (One Battle was expected to earn $25 million domestically), it brought in a total of $48.5 million worldwide. This marks the biggest opening weekend of Anderson’s thirty-year career, surpassing the $4.8 million debut of his 2007 film, There Will Be Blood. However, $22.4 million is less than the opening weekends of some of One Battle star Leonardo DiCaprio’s biggest hits, such as Inception ($62 million), 2013’s The Great Gatsby ($50 million), and Shutter Island ($41 million).

Additionally, considering the reported $130 million production cost of One Battle After Another-a figure many industry experts believe was actually between $140 and $160 million-the opening weekend is seen as somewhat “soft.” While the film achieved a degree of success, it didn’t immediately establish itself as a major hit. The well-received movie, which runs for two hours and 42 minutes and is already a frontrunner in the Best Picture Oscar race, will need to maintain its theatrical run for several months, with weekly attendance dropping by less than 60 percent, to justify the significant investment made by its distributor, Warner Bros.

According to Jeff Bock, a senior box-office analyst at Exhibitor Relations Co., Paul Thomas Anderson typically creates films that build gradually and appeal to serious movie fans, and none of his movies have ever had a huge opening weekend. However, Warner Bros. still needs to do a lot to make the film profitable. Whether it reaches that goal depends on how well it continues to perform throughout October and the rest of the awards season-it will be a constant struggle, week after week, to maintain box office numbers.

This R-rated action-comedy-drama stars DiCaprio as “Bob,” a former political activist and revolutionary known for launching rockets – whose everyday life of drinking, smoking, and raising his teenage daughter, Willa (Chase Infiniti), is completely disrupted by the unexpected arrival of Sean Penn’s tough military officer, Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw. One Battle has also surprised Hollywood by accomplishing something many thought impossible. Despite months of negative reports questioning Warner’s decision to give acclaimed director Anderson (Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and the multiple Academy Award nominee Phantom Thread) his largest budget yet, One Battle became the studio’s seventh consecutive No. 1 film this year. It also marked the title that finally brought Warner Bros.’s total box-office earnings above $4 billion: making them the first studio to reach that level in 2025, and achieving their best financial performance since 2019, before the pandemic.

It’s easy to miss, but back in March, Bloomberg reported a significant story: David Zaslav, the often-criticized CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, was unhappy with his studio heads, Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca, and was looking at other potential leaders. The problem was a string of poorly performing films under their leadership, including Joker: Folie à Deux (which cost around $200 million to make but only earned $206 million – a big failure), the poorly received crime film Alto Knights (budget: $45 million, worldwide earnings: $10.2 million), and director Bong Joon Ho’s sci-fi thriller, Mickey 17 (budget: $118 million, worldwide earnings: $133.3 million). These films all contributed to a drop in Warner Bros. Discovery’s stock price.

As a movie fan, March felt like a really chaotic month. On top of all the worrying talk about how De Luca and Abdy were doing as heads of Warner Bros., the studio made a couple of interesting moves. They pushed back the release of One Battle After Another – originally slated for August, they moved it right into the thick of awards season. But even more surprisingly, they released Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, a period horror-thriller that was described as a vampire flick! Apparently, some executives at rival studios were genuinely scared it “could be the end of the studio system.” It’s always exciting when a movie causes that much buzz, even if it’s a little frightening!

However, after Sinners performed better than expected at the box office, Warner Bros. – or more precisely, executives Abdy and De Luca – seemed to be on a winning streak. A Minecraft Movie arrived in April, creating chaotic scenes in theaters with its “Chicken jockey” craze (total earnings: $957.8 million). In May, the latest installment in the 25-year-old horror series, Final Destination: Bloodlines, earned a surprising $313.9 million despite positive reviews. June brought the Brad Pitt action thriller F1: The Movie-essentially Top Gun with race cars-which topped the box office with $626 million worldwide. (This was a distribution deal where Apple paid Warner Bros. to handle marketing and theatrical release, but it still counts.) Then, in July, James Gunn-writer, director, and head of DC Studios-successfully rebooted the Superman franchise after many years (production cost: $225 million, worldwide earnings: $615.6 million). And just last month, Zach Cregger’s suspenseful horror film Weapons outperformed the body-swap comedy Freakier Friday on opening weekend, ultimately earning a solid $264.8 million.

According to Bock, Warner Bros. has experienced a remarkably successful year. They’ve released a major superhero movie, several sequels, scary horror films, and original projects directed by well-known filmmakers. This variety is exactly what audiences want from large studios – a blend of everything. Bock believes this approach is the key to success, and if other studios followed Warner Bros.’s lead, there wouldn’t be as much concern about declining box office numbers these days.

According to box-office analyst David A. Gross in his FranchiseRe newsletter, Leonardo DiCaprio’s involvement will probably be a major reason why One Battle After Another is financially successful. DiCaprio’s films generally do well internationally and continue to earn money for weeks after their initial release – a contrast to most movies, which make the bulk of their revenue during the opening weekend. “Similar to many films, it’s expected to generate more income from sources beyond theaters, such as digital sales, rentals, streaming, and television, than from traditional theatrical rentals,” Gross explains. “Once production and marketing expenses are factored in, the film has a good chance of becoming profitable if it maintains a decent run in cinemas and/or exceeds expectations internationally.” In other words, the film – and Warner Bros., Pam Abdy, and Mike DeLuca – need to keep achieving success, one step at a time.

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2025-09-29 19:55