As a seasoned crypto investor with a keen interest in political prediction markets, I find myself both intrigued and concerned by the ongoing saga between Kalshi and the CFTC. Having witnessed my fair share of regulatory battles in the crypto sphere, I can’t help but feel a sense of déjà vu.


Following last week’s legal setback in a court case involving Kalshi’s election contracts, the chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, affirmed that they will persistently pursue the case against activities they still believe are illegal.

According to Behnam, this appears to violate legal regulations, which he emphasized during a financial policy discussion at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, Georgetown University. He also stated that they would persist in presenting this argument.

Last week, Judge Jia Cobb from the District of Columbia court decided that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) overstepped its boundaries by prohibiting Kalshi from listing U.S. political prediction markets. In essence, this means that Kalshi was barred from creating bets on which party could potentially control the House of Representatives or win the presidency in a specific term. However, following the CFTC’s request for an emergency stay, a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily halted Kalshi’s newly launched political prediction markets. A hearing has been scheduled for Thursday to discuss this matter further.

Behnam emphasized that allowing the CFTC to oversee U.S. elections for market manipulation allegations could be risky. Right now, this regulatory body is in the midst of creating rules that might lead to an outright prohibition of prediction markets within their supervised industries.

If users find election betting useful, the chairman said that it should be overseen elsewhere.

If people are truly keen on these markets to flourish, expand, and mature, it’s important that such actions take place at the state level in the gaming or gambling industry, according to Behnam.

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2024-09-17 18:56