Trump’s Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting

According to The New York Times, a Secret Service representative confirmed that the Republican presidential candidate was unharmed after an incident involving a gunman, who was fatally shot, and a bystander who unfortunately lost their life. Images and clips of a determined Trump, with traces of blood on his visage and triumphantly raising his fist, spread rapidly across social media platforms. For the past two weeks, the public discourse has been dominated by discussions about the vulnerability and blunders of his adversary, President Joe Biden.

The price of “Yes” bets in Polymarket’s contract predicting Trump’s presidency victory rose by ten cents, reaching 70 cents. This indicates a increased probability of 70% according to the market for Trump winning the November presidential election. Each share is worth one dollar if the prediction comes true, and nothing otherwise. These wagers are managed through a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain, which settles transactions using USDC, a cryptocurrency that maintains a stable value equal to the US dollar.

As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I came across some intriguing developments with meme tokens named after former U.S. President Donald Trump. One of these tokens, MAGA, experienced a significant surge, increasing by 34% within a 24-hour period to reach $8.38 based on data from CoinGecko. Another satirical token, TREMP, also saw impressive growth, rising by 67% to hit $0.6471.

The CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Index, representing the broader crypto market, has risen by 3.31% within the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, the pioneering and most valued cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion, has gained 3.26%, currently priced at $59,735.17.

As a passionate crypto investor, I’m excited about Trump’s unwavering backing for cryptocurrencies during his campaign. He is even scheduled to address a bitcoin conference in Nashville this month. Furthermore, the Republican party platform intends to put an end to the Biden administration’s efforts aimed at suppressing the crypto industry.

Four years ago, Shayne Coplan established Polymarket. In 2024, this platform experienced impressive trading activity due to heightened interest in political wagers before the U.S. election. The contract for predicting the U.S. presidential winner has accumulated a remarkable $252 million in bets – a new record for Polymarket and for all crypto-based prediction markets (and likely a notable one for the prediction market industry as a whole).

Before the shooting incident, PredictIt, an established betting platform dealing in real money, displayed a rising trend for Trump’s shares, increasing from 59 cents to 66 cents, followed by a stabilization at 65 cents.

In prediction markets, individuals bet real money on the outcome of events, which motivates them to conduct extensive research and provide accurate assessments. As a result, these markets can offer more dependable indicators of sentiment and forecasting compared to polls.