As a seasoned political analyst with over two decades of experience, I’ve seen my fair share of surprises and upsets in U.S. elections. The recent surge in Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 presidential election is not something to be dismissed lightly. While it may seem improbable to some, the data from prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt suggests a significant shift in public sentiment towards the former president.
The likelihood of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election has significantly increased, reaching its highest point in over two months, according to the prominent prediction platform, Polymarket.
According to bets placed on Polymarket, which has seen over $1.6 billion in wagers for the November election, traders predict a 55.8% chance that the former president will win, compared to a 43.8% likelihood for Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Trump’s prospects are now as high as they were when President Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t run for another term, creating an opportunity for his vice president to assume power instead.
In the prediction market Kalshi, it was recently granted approval for contracts tied to U.S. elections, and they currently indicate that Trump has a 52% advantage over Harris. In contrast, PredictIt shows a closer race with Trump leading by just 53% against Harris’s 52%.
While Polymarket may not be accessible for American users due to certain restrictions, it’s possible that individuals using Virtual Private Networks (VPN) could bypass this limitation. On the other hand, platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt are permitted in the United States.
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2024-10-11 00:35