Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote

Expressing a firm support for cryptocurrencies might have boosted Donald Trump’s advantage against Joe Biden in the presidential race, based on the forecasts of prediction markets.

Over the past week, Trump has expressed his intention to grant clemency to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, who is deeply admired within the cryptocurrency community. Furthermore, he has declared his plans to place the United States at the forefront of the digital assets sector. This stands in stark contrast to the approach taken by the Biden administration thus far.

During the same time frame, the value of shares representing a Biden win on PredictIt, a widely-used election wagering site for individual investors that settles transactions in US dollars, has dropped from 46 cents to 44 cents. Each share yields $1 if Biden secures another term, but nothing otherwise. In simpler terms, the current price of 44 cents implies a market prediction of approximately 44% probability for Biden’s re-election.

The cryptocurrency platform Polymarket, which restricts usage for Americans due to technical reasons, has exhibited a comparable change in probabilities.

As a crypto investor following the presidential race closely, I’ve noticed an intriguing shift in the poll numbers over the past week. Trump has managed to pick up two additional percentage points on the platform, bringing his chances up to a commanding 56%. On the other hand, Biden has taken a hit, losing two percentage points and now sits at a considerably weaker 37%.

According to recent polls, the difference between the two candidates has not grown significantly, and there has been only a modest change in public sentiment over the past week. The advantage enjoyed by Trump in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages has expanded slightly, amounting to approximately 1.7 percentage points. Supporters of prediction markets maintain that these platforms offer a more accurate reflection of public opinion and serve as valuable predictive tools due to the financial stakes involved for the bettors.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed some buzz in the financial markets about North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum being considered as a potential running mate for President Trump.

I’ve recently caught the spotlight in some Trump rallies and made it to the pages of the Wall Street Journal. According to Republican insiders, my wealthy background and influential connections resonate strongly with President Trump.

In the marketplace of Polymarket, Burgum shares have experienced a 3-percentage point increase and are now being transacted at a price equivalent to 18% or 18 cents. Conversely, on PredictIt, the price for Burgum shares has decreased slightly, now standing at 15 cents.

As a researcher examining the current political landscape, I’ve observed that in both PredictIt and Polymarket markets, Tim Scott holds a significant lead over Burgum. Specifically, on PredictIt, his advantage is around 23%, while on Polymarket it’s even larger at 27%. In comparison, Marco Rubio and Nikki Haley trail behind with 10% and 4% respectively in the Polymarket market.

Ether ETF bets pay off bigly

A contentious debate has emerged on Polymarket concerning the outcome of the contract regarding the SEC’s approval of ether ETFs. Some bettors are of the opinion that “approval” refers exclusively to the 19b-4 forms, while others believe it encompasses both the 19b-4 forms and the S-1 filings.

Last week, the SEC requested unexpectedly for revised 19b-4 filings from potential Ethereum ETF issuers. A few days after these crucial documents were submitted, they received approval from the SEC, surprising industry experts who had anticipated delays due to the SEC’s unclear stance on ether being classified as a security.

But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

The SEC has given the green light to the 19b-4 forms for the ETFs, but they haven’t endorsed the S-1 filings yet. As a result, trading can’t commence as per James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who shared this information with CoinDesk.

As a researcher, I would express it this way: “When it comes to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), they aren’t considered authorized until both the required registration form, like S-1, N-1A, or N-2, and the 19b-4 filing have been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).”

As a crypto investor, I’ve come to terms with the intricacies and red tape involved in the world of decentralized finance. Yet, despite these complexities, the Polymarket contract, which garnered over $13 million in wagers, managed to reach a conclusion. The “oracle” or referee responsible for making the final call determined that the issue at hand was resolved, resulting in a “yes” outcome.

And that has led to some long-shot money being made.

A user named Paperliss successfully invested around $300 when the market price was at 7 cents. This investment subsequently grew to $4,358, resulting in an impressive return of approximately 1,329%.

The biggest stakeholder in the “Yes” shares, notgonnatrickme, achieved a remarkable return of 61% on their investment. Consequently, their initial investment of around $10,000 grew to a substantial value of $16,902 upon the contract’s conclusion.