Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick

Mid-morning on Tuesday in New York, the price of “Yes” shares for Trump in Polymarket’s presidential election contract stood at 72 cents. This implies that the market forecasts a 72% probability of victory for the Republican nominee. Each share entitles its holder to a $1 payout if the prediction materializes, with no return otherwise. The wagers are automated through a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and denominated in USDC, a cryptocurrency equivalent to the US dollar.

Vance, aged 39, is the first millennial to be nominated by a major political party for a significant role, according to The New York Times. This selection is viewed as a gamble that he will infuse the Republican ticket with renewed vitality. Furthermore, he is a strong advocate for cryptocurrencies.

On Monday, Trump made his announcement, just two days after his prospects of winning hit a new high of 70%, following an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania that he survived.

The distressing event became a triumph for the contender, with enduring images of a bruised yet resilient Trump spreading across the web during a two-week period when the country’s discourse centered around the aging of his adversary, President Joe Biden in office.

Approximately $262 million has been wagered on Polymarket’s presidential election contract, marking a new record in crypto-prediction markets (even surpassing traditional prediction markets). Launched four years ago, this platform is currently experiencing a surge in popularity due to the heightened interest in election betting. Remarkably, it remains off-limits for users based in the United States as part of a regulatory agreement.

PredictIt, an American prediction marketplace that predates many others and is exempt from regulatory norms, handling settlements in traditional US dollars, has displayed a parallel pattern. The value of “Yes” wagers for Trump on this platform surged from 60 cents to 69 cents preceding the Pennsylvania shooting incident.

As a prediction market analyst, I observe that in this unique economic system, individuals place wagers on the tangible results of various real-life occurrences, all while adhering to predetermined time constraints. The scope of these wagers is vast and encompasses an array of subjects, ranging from meteorological phenomena to political elections, sporting contests, and even celebrity relationships.

Critics dismiss prediction markets as a form of betting, but advocates insist they bring valuable benefits for the general population. Participants in these markets stake real funds on their predictions, which intensifies their motivation to conduct thorough research and share unbiased views. As a result, they may prove to be more accurate forecasters compared to pollsters or commentators.