Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

A long shot, but still a shot.

On Polymarket’s “Will Trump mention ‘Trump’ or ‘debate’ at the debate?” market for crypto/Bitcoin, a single share trading at 17 cents in midday New York on Tuesday represented a belief among traders that there was a 17% likelihood he would use either word. Each share pays out $1 worth of cryptocurrency if the prediction is accurate and nothing if it turns out to be incorrect.

In simpler terms, when it comes to topics that the previous military leader and Republican candidate might bring up more frequently, such as “abortion” with a high likelihood of 83%, along with phrases reminiscent of Trump, like “Comrade Kamala” with a probability of 40%, cryptocurrency tends to lag behind.

In simpler terms, there’s only a 13% chance that Vice President Harris might discuss bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, it’s highly likely (an 87% probability) that she will talk about abortion as a topic, and there’s a 58% chance she might refer to her opponent as someone who has been convicted of a crime.

This year, Trump has actively pursued support and contributions from cryptocurrency advocates. On the other hand, while Harris’ campaign has shown interest, it is important to note that her current administration is viewed as unfriendly by the crypto industry.

Prediction markets enable individuals to wager funds on various events such as flu epidemics, conflicts, or movie ratings on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics view these as merely gambling forms, but supporters believe they provide a more reliable forecasting method compared to polls and expert opinions. This is due to the fact that traders risking their money are motivated to conduct comprehensive research and express genuine views rather than what others prefer to hear.

2021 has seen a significant increase in election betting, and Polymarket has become the go-to platform for many, even though it must restrict users from the U.S. due to a regulatory agreement (some traders may be masking their locations using VPNs). Last Friday marked a record-breaking day for the platform, with a trading volume of $34 million, as reported by Dune Analytics.

On the prediction market platform called Manifold, often referred to as “play money,” the term “bitcoin” has relatively low chances of being mentioned during Tuesday’s debate, with approximately 12% likelihood. This puts it slightly ahead of phrases like “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). Winnings in this market are awarded in mana, a digital, non-crypto currency. New users receive free mana upon registration, and they can purchase additional amounts, although the mana cannot be converted into real money; instead, the primary motivation for placing bets on Manifold is to establish oneself as an accurate predictor.