As a seasoned researcher with extensive experience in the cryptocurrency market, I have closely observed the recent trends and developments that suggest considerable institutional interest in Bitcoin’s year-end rally, particularly with December 2024 $100,000 calls. This bullish sentiment is fueled by growing confidence in a potential Trump victory in the US elections.
Although the cost to buy a contract for the right to purchase Bitcoin at $100,000 in December 2024 decreased last night, there’s evidence indicating significant institutional demand for these options.
The increase in confidence is more pronounced that the world’s largest crypto will experience a year-end rally, especially since the chances of a Donald Trump presidency win gain strength.
Sizeable Institutional Interest
In their recent announcement, cryptocurrency trading company, QCP Capital, reported that Bitcoin’s price behavior has remained robust in the face of persistent challenges like the ongoing Mt. Gox supply issue and deteriorating stock markets. This resilience could signal that the market has successfully addressed its past worries.
Bitcoin’s perpetual funding rates have stabilized, and volatility is on the decline. The cryptocurrency has returned to its typical trading range of around $61,000 to $71,000 during Q2, which it has largely occupied. In the short term, Bitcoin’s price may remain within this band, especially with traders maintaining significant long positions in the July 26th $67,000 call option.
The market is displaying significant expectation for a significant move forward as the US elections draw near. Importantly, there’s considerable institutional demand for December $100,000 call options, indicating a firm conviction in a robust year-end surge. This optimism stems from the escalating likelihood of a Trump victory.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed a significant increase in tech industry support for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the past few months. His running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, adds value to this alliance with his background as a venture capitalist. Furthermore, his vocal advocacy for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin further strengthens the connection between Trump and the tech sector.
Due to Trump’s recent shift in attitude towards Bitcoin, several prominent tech figures, some with ties to cryptocurrency, have publicly endorsed or financially backed him via political action committees. Notable supporters include Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and the partners at one of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture capital firms – Andreessen Horowitz.
Although the Biden administration has taken a practical stance towards approving Ethereum ETFs, Trump continues to be a favored pick among many. Intriguingly, Standard Chartered forecasts that Bitcoin could reach an astounding $150,000 if Trump secures another term as president.
Members of President Biden’s Democratic Party have been urging him to exit the presidential race due to the poor performance of his recent debate against Donald Trump, who is also 78 years old.
During a interview held on Wednesday, Biden expressed that if he were to develop a health concern, he would reconsider his campaign. Furthermore, according to a poll conducted by AP NORC, a majority of Democratic party members believe Biden should step down and let another candidate take his place.
Will Biden’s Potential Victory Spell Trouble for US Crypto?
In light of increasing backing for Trump among crypto enthusiasts, it’s important to acknowledge that debates concerning the industry’s potential future under various political regimes are gaining traction.
Vitalik Buterin, a co-founder of Ethereum, has advised voters to be wary of politicians who express support for digital assets yet lack a solid grasp of the underlying technology’s essential principles and objectives.
Buterin abstained from mentioning any specific political candidates in his post, yet drew criticism from Charles Hoskinson of Cardano who vigorously disagreed with Buterin’s viewpoint. He warned that re-electing Biden could lead to the downfall of the American crypto industry.
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2024-07-20 01:02