Trump and Biden Likely Won’t Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

As a researcher studying the history of U.S. presidential debates, I’ve discovered that the handshake has played a significant role in shaping the narrative of these important political encounters. For nearly five decades, this simple yet symbolic gesture has marked the beginning and end of debates, signifying civility and respect between opponents, even in the face of vastly differing viewpoints. It was notably absent during the first televised debate in 1960, but since then it has been a consistent feature that sets the stage for meaningful discourse between presidential contenders.

However, some individuals placing wagers on Polymarket are skeptical that a debate format will be used during the initial 2024 presidential debate, which is planned for June 27th.

The market agreement states: If Donald Trump and Joe Biden engage in a handshake prior, during, or following the initial face-to-face debate in the 2024 presidential election, this contract will be settled with a value of ‘Yes’. At present, ‘Yes’ shares are worth 32 cents.

As a prediction market analyst, I can explain that in these types of markets, I personally make predictions about the outcome of certain events and buy or sell corresponding shares. If my prediction turns out to be correct, I am rewarded with $1 for each share I own. Conversely, if I guess incorrectly, I don’t earn anything from my investment. The value of a share reflects the collective belief of all participants in the market about the likelihood of that event occurring. For instance, a share priced at 32 cents suggests that there is a perceived 32% chance of that particular event materializing.

During the 2016 election cycle, debates grew noticeably more contentious than in previous years, leading to a cessation of the traditional handshake custom before and after the debates.

During the 2020 presidential debates, Biden and Trump abstained from shaking hands due to health precautions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, instead of letting their animosity and contentiousness dictate this decision.

As an analyst, I anticipate that the topic of Former President Trump’s allegations that the 2020 election was fraudulent and his ongoing legal issues will be brought up during the debate. In response, Trump may bring up the legal matters surrounding Hunter Biden and make comments questioning President Biden’s cognitive abilities.

Does this sound like the sort of environment where two people will shake hands before or after?

As an analyst, I’ve been observing the ongoing speculation regarding the Biden campaign’s potential acceptance of cryptocurrency donations. This comes in response to Donald Trump’s recent announcement that his campaign would be open to such contributions.

Don’t bet on it, Polymarket bettors say, giving it just a 14% chance of happening by June 21.

Betting on a Correction

As a crypto investor, I’ve been following the recent controversy surrounding The Guardian’s article about prediction markets. The piece, published last Sunday, painted a less-than-flattering picture of this investment tool and its backers. I was taken aback when I read the association of prediction markets with convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried and “scientific racism.”

As a researcher studying the predictions made on Manifold.markets, I have observed that there is an 84% likelihood that The Guardian will revise at least one factual statement in one of their articles based on the forecasts. If the publication makes this correction through an editor’s note, a discreet edit, or by removing the article entirely, the contract will resolve to “yes.”

As an analyst, I would describe Manifold differently than Polymarket by saying: In contrast to Polymarket where bets are settled using cryptocurrencies, Manifold functions as a “play money” platform. Transactions in this market are conducted through a digital currency called mana, which is distinct from crypto. Upon joining, users receive an initial 200 mana for free. However, they cannot withdraw or cash out this currency. The appeal of betting on Manifold lies in its potential to establish a solid reputation as an accurate forecaster among the community.

The Guardian’s article reported that Bankman-Fried, the ex-CEO of FTX, is suspected of having transferred approximately $5 million from FTX’s client deposits to a nonprofit organization named Lightcone Infrastructure. According to the report, Lightcone subsequently utilized these funds to purchase a former hotel located in Berkeley, California. The trustees of FTX are currently attempting to retrieve the questioned funds.

As a researcher studying prediction markets and forecasting, I recently attended the Manifest 2024 conference held at a former hotel. This event was organized by Manifold and Manifund, a nonprofit organization that supports charitable projects through funding. Contrary to The Guardian’s description, Manifund is not solely focused on prediction markets.

At X, formerly known as Twitter, the CEO of Lightcone Infrastructure, Oliver Habryka, pointed out five factually inaccurate aspects in the article. Among these were a distorted portrayal of Manifund.

I (Habryka) have no intention of pursuing a legal action against The Guardian. I find the U.K. libel law to be quite irrational, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable using it to sue anyone.

No such puck

As a crypto investor, I was confidently anticipating the Florida Panthers to secure the Stanley Cup finals victory up until the fourth game of the series this weekend. However, my optimism was shattered when the Edmonton Oilers delivered a crushing blow, winning with an impressive score of 8-1.

The momentum Edmonton experienced didn’t significantly improve their probability of winning the Stanley Cup, as indicated by prediction markets. Instead, it led to a minimal increase, raising Edmonton’s likelihood from 7% to 10%, while Florida’s chances remained high at 90%.

Edmonton has a slightly better chance of winning against Polymarket according to most sportsbooks. For instance, BetMGM assigns the Oilers a probability of approximately 12%, whereas the Panthers have about an 8% chance based on their odds of 1.08 and the Oilers’ 8.25. Other sportsbooks also offer similar odds, with Edmonton having a likelihood between 12% and 13%.

As a hockey analyst, I can tell you that Florida stands only one victory away from securing the Stanley Cup championship. Fortunately for them, this decisive match is set to unfold on their home ice, a terrain where Edmonton has historically struggled.