According to the most recent Bitfinex Alpha report, some analysts believe Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant surge, potentially reaching $150,000 within 14 months following the halving event. This represents an approximate increase of 160% from its current value.
Bitfinex employed a basic regression model to predict decreasing returns for Bitcoin‘s price based on past bitcoin halvings. However, this model failed to account for Bitcoin reaching a new peak before the halving event; consequently, the cryptocurrency’s price surge following the halving could exceed 160%.
The Upcoming Halving Event
Every four years or after processing 210,000 blocks, an event called halving takes place in Bitcoin’s system. During this occasion, the reward for mining new blocks is reduced by half. Consequently, the current reward of 6.25 Bitcoins per block will be decreased to 3.125 Bitcoins. This mechanism helps regulate the supply of new coins by slowing down their production rate.
Previously, the value of bitcoin has tended to rise following each halving because of continued or heightened demand. However, the extent of this increase during the current cycle could differ significantly since bitcoin set a new record high price prior to the halving occurring for the first time.
While some consider this aspect to be a positive sign for Bitcoin’s price, analysts caution that it brings an element of doubt to market trends. This underscores the importance of carefully considering the intricacies of current market situations and how they might influence Bitcoin’s future price fluctuations.
Bitcoin Could Rally 160%
Bitcoin saw remarkable gains following each halving event. For instance, its price jumped around 9,300% from $12 to $1,161 within about 13 months after the 2012 halving. Similarly, in 2017, Bitcoin surged approximately 2,800% from $600 to $20,000 around 17 months following the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the price of Bitcoin increased by nearly 700% from $9,000 to $69,000 within approximately 11 months after the 2020 halving.
According to the assessment, Bitcoin might increase by approximately 160% in the span of 420 days, or around 14 months, following the upcoming halving event. This serves as a useful indicator for predicting Bitcoin’s potential price trend post-halving.
According to Bitfinex’s estimation, the price trend after each Bitcoin halving has shown a decrease in percentage increases. If we assume a moderate increase following the next halving, with the price being around $57,000 to $65,000 at that time, then a price rise of 160% would result in a peak price ranging from roughly $150,000 to $169,000.
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2024-04-09 15:36