The Protocol: Polymarket Feeds Political Junkies, With Nate Silver

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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)

PLAYING POLITICS: When the predictions-betting site Polymarket raised $70 million in fresh funding in May, CEO Shayne Coplan tweeted that it was “most gratifying” seeing “widespread adoption” of the platform as an “alternative news source.” It was exactly the sort of deflection-flex one might expect from a startup executive enjoying his liquidity moment. But as this year’s U.S. presidential election lurches from one surprise to the next, Coplan’s assessment appears to be right on the money. Just over the past couple weeks, blockchain bettors have used the platform (built atop the Polygon blockchain) to: wager on President Joe Biden’s chances of winning reelection; gamble on Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds of replacing him as the Democratic nominee; handicap Biden’s performance during a press conference and ABC TV interview; bid up former President Donald Trump’s likelihood of victory following an attempted assassination; and assess the appeal of his vice president pick, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). A new breed of crypto degenerates have popped up on the social-media site X, posting their winning betting slips, with one lucky soul claiming to have netted more than $400,000 on a single punt. It should be noted that none of this Polymarket gambling is legal in the U.S., since the project was barred in 2022 from doing business in the country under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that also came with a $1.4 million fine. Even so, there’s some speculation that prediction markets might get increasingly cited by news outlets whose political coverage previously relied on polls or pundits. To underscore the point, Axios broke the story this week that Polymarket had hired the widely followed statistician and journalist Nate Silver as an adviser. Silver told the publication in an interview that he expected “more of the investor class to leverage prediction markets to assess the risk of politics on their businesses.” Anyone care to bet?

As a seasoned financial professional with extensive experience working for esteemed institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, as well as digital asset powerhouse Galaxy, I, Richard Kim, have seen my fair share of market volatility and risks. However, even with my background, I couldn’t prevent a substantial loss for Zero Edge. In the tumultuous month of June, our company suffered a setback as I lost over $3.67 million of the funds on bitcoin trades that didn’t go as planned. The bitter taste of this experience reminds me that even in the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrencies, risks are inherent and not every investment will yield a positive outcome.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has announced a job vacancy for a mid-level to senior-level specialist in the field of digital assets markets. The estimated salary for this position is between $136,800 and $230,000 per year. Key qualifications include experience with data sets that are pertinent to digital asset markets and the ability to clearly explain intricate topics to high-level audiences.

In my opinion, bitcoin holds legitimacy as a financial asset when one believes that countries are devaluing their currencies through excessive deficits. This perspective might offer reassurance and justification for some advisors, particularly the baby boomer demographic, to consider including bitcoin in their portfolios.

As a researcher, I came across an intriguing report by Reuters on Monday regarding Huione Pay, a currency exchange and payments company based in Cambodia. According to the article, over $150,000 worth of cryptocurrency linked to the notorious North Korean hacking group Lazarus was reportedly received by Huione Pay. Two blockchain analysts revealed that this wallet had been used by Lazarus hackers to deposit funds stolen from three crypto companies in June and July of the previous year, primarily through phishing attacks. However, Huione Pay’s board stated that they were unaware they had “indirectly received” these funds from the cybercrimes.

Australian computer scientist and former Bitcoin identifer Craig Wright has recently amended the content on his personal website. The updated text now states that he does not hold the title of Bitcoin’s inventor, and denies being the writer of the Bitcoin whitepaper.

Protocol Village

Based on my extensive experience in the dynamic world of blockchain technology, I am thrilled to share with you my top picks from the past week at Protocol Village. These handpicked selections encompass the most significant upgrades and latest news within our realm, ensuring that you stay informed and engaged in this ever-evolving industry. Let’s delve into the world of innovation together!

Chromia’s architecture (Chromia)

1. Chromia, blockchain ecosystem that aims to avoid network congestion partly by giving every decentralized app (dapp) its own cluster of nodes and computational resources, has gone live on mainnet, “marking the beginning of the relational blockchain era,” according to the team: “The mainnet launch marks the genesis block of the new native CHR token and will enable the current CHR token, which was issued as ERC-20 and BEP-20, to be bridged to the MVP mainnet. The MVP Mainnet also includes staking delegation process, payment of network hosting fees and provider payouts.”

As a crypto investor, I’m excited about the latest advancement from Polygon Labs, the team behind Polygon, my favorite layer-2 blockchain solution. On Tuesday, they announced the release of an upgraded version of their zero-knowledge proving system – Plonky3. This new system is more flexible than its predecessor, and I’m looking forward to seeing how it will enhance the Polygon network’s capabilities.

Sasha Ivanov, the founder of Waves blockchain ecosystem’s Units.network, has made public a fully operational testnet. Units.network is an advanced system of linkable blockchains established on the Waves platform. This milestone marks the introduction of a complete Layer 2 solution, employing a re-staking mechanism for creating a completely decentralized network. This innovation allows for the easy deployment of interconnected blockchains and ensures their operation through existing Waves validators.

4. The team behind Pyth, a blockchain oracle protocol, has debuted its latest offering, Express Relay, on the mainnet. This launch marks the introduction of a groundbreaking decentralized approach to addressing the persistent issue of Miner Extractable Value (MEV) in processing liquidations and market-enhancing transactions within Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Previously considered an inherent aspect of on-chain finance, MEV refers to the potential profits that miners can extract from transactions. Express Relay enables direct communication between DeFi protocols and a network of verified searchers via controlled auctions for events such as liquidations. Notable participants in this network include Flow Traders, Wintermute, Auros, Flowdesk, Caladan, Tokka Labs, and Swaap Finance.

5. The Ava Protocol, formerly known as OAK Network, has introduced its mainnet on Ethereum under the moniker of EigenLayer AVS for streamlined smart contract automation. This innovation aims to boost transaction efficiency, privacy, and interoperability in Web3, enabling developers to incorporate event-driven super-transactions without custom coding, thereby simplifying intricate on-chain functions. Advanced functionalities beyond Ethereum Virtual Machine are supported, including automated tasks such as payments and dynamic NFT minting. Following a successful testnet phase, Ava Protocol’s security is bolstered by Ethereum validators, setting the stage for revolutionizing smart contract automation.

CarnationFM: A Decentralized Radio Playing Songs With Encrypted Hidden Messages

A mix of volunteers and hackers playing music at EthBerlin in May. (Amitoj Singh/CoinDesk)

It might just sound like music.

A team of developers, working on the project named “CarnationFM,” has found a method to conceal an encrypted message, with a capacity of approximately 250 kilobytes per minute, within music files.

The Ethereum blockchain hosts Swarm, a decentralized platform for music distribution, where the tunes are disseminated.

One person among the collaborators mentioned, “Anyone is free to play the music or hear the song.” At the same time, “It’s accessible for anyone to download it.” However, only those in possession of the public key are able to decrypt and view the hidden message.

At the EthBerlin conference in May, the distinguished project that received the Best Social Impact accolade took cues from Portugal’s historic Carnation Revolution in 1974. This revolution, famously named for a popular radio song, served as the catalyst for a military uprising that effectively toppled an oppressive regime.

Click here for the full article by CoinDesk’s Amitoj Singh

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Scene from New York’s Le Poisson Rouge, where tickets are bought via Aptos-based KYD (Julia Pagano)

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