Republicans Look Set to Clinch Electoral Sweep, Echoing Polymarket Bets

At the current moment, as I pen these words, Associated Press has declared winners for 409 out of 435 congressional seats. The Democratic Party has claimed victory in 199 seats, whereas the Republican Party has secured 210. To secure a majority, a party needs 218 seats, and as of Thursday evening, it seems that the Republicans are edging closer to this figure, suggesting they may soon achieve it – aligning with predictions on Polymarket, a betting platform, where traders have assigned Republicans at least a 51% probability and an increasing likelihood since 8:00 p.m. EST Tuesday night. According to the current bets placed, the Republicans stand a 98.5% chance of capturing the House.

By 6:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, based on Associated Press reports, Republicans were leading in at least 14 out of the 27 races still undecided. If these leads remain, it would mean that they will maintain a majority for another two years at least.

In the state of Alaska, Republican candidate Nick Begich was leading Democrat Mary Peltola by approximately 10,000 votes in an election where around 76% of the ballots had been counted. Notably, Mary Peltola secured support from the pro-crypto group Fairshake PAC.

As a researcher reporting from Arizona, I find myself in a fascinating position as I observe the ongoing election results. In this race, veteran Congressman David Schweikert, who co-founded the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, maintains a substantial lead of approximately 10,000 votes, with slightly less than 70% of total votes counted. Another notable contender, Republican Eli Crane, is also holding onto a narrow advantage in this tight competition.

In the contest for an additional House seat in Arizona, Democrat Greg Stanton maintained a substantial advantage over his Republican competitor, whereas Juan Ciscomani, who had support from Fairshake, was barely behind by a small margin as 70% of the votes were counted.

As I, the researcher, analyzed the voting results in Iowa, it became apparent that Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks maintained a slim 0.2% advantage over her Democratic opponent, Christina Bohannan. Given the closeness of this race, there’s a strong possibility that it might require a recount to determine a definitive winner.

In the state of Nebraska, Republican Don Bacon maintained a slight advantage, currently leading by approximately 3 percentage points with nearly all (95%) of the votes tallied.

In Washington, it looks like Republican Dan Newhouse will defeat another Republican in their race, which means the Democrats won’t gain any advantage from it. This leaves the Republicans with 217 seats in total.

If these findings remain consistent, Democrats would require victories in all of California’s uncalled races (currently 12) and triumphs in the districts they currently lead, to reclaim control of the House. At this moment, Republicans are ahead in seven of those races, but it is important to note that only about 52% of the results have been tallied in some of these contests.

In California, candidates supported by Fairshake who are leading in the Republican primary include David Valadao with a 10% advantage and 56% of votes counted, Michael Garcia with a slight lead of more than 2% and 69% of votes counted, Young Kim with a 13% edge and 71% of votes counted, and Michelle Steel with over 4% advantage and 70% of votes counted.

In their respective contests, candidates Ken Calvert, John Duarte, and Scott Baugh are currently leading, with margins of nearly 3%, 52%, and 0.4% respectively, as around 76%, 52%, and 73% of the votes have been counted.

As of now, with all votes not yet fully counted, it appears that Republicans could retain around 224 seats in the House, a gain of two seats compared to the 118th Congress. However, there’s still a chance some races may switch before final tallies are done.

As of the latest update on Polymarket, the probability assigned by bettors to this particular outcome stands at approximately 86%, significantly higher than the initial 20% when polls ended on Tuesday night. The second most likely scenario, with a likelihood of around 21%, is one where Republicans secure between 215 and 219 seats in the House of Representatives.