Polymarket Bettors Shuffle Odds of Bitcoin’s Creator Reveal Ahead of HBO Documentary

As a seasoned researcher with a keen interest in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, I have followed the Satoshi Nakamoto saga closely for years. The latest developments regarding Len Sassaman have piqued my curiosity once again.

The possibility that the late Len Sassaman was secretly the creator of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi Nakamoto, was reduced significantly to 14% following his wife’s statement in an HBO documentary, where she declared he wasn’t the founder and also stated that they had not been contacted during the making of the documentary.

A Polymarket betting contract predicted that Sassaman, who passed away in 2011, had a 55% chance of being named in the documentary over the weekend. However, these odds significantly decreased following the publication of an interview with Patterson by DLNews. The documentary is set to air at 02:00 UTC on Wednesday (equivalent to 9 p.m. Tuesday Eastern Time).

As a cryptocurrency investor, I sometimes ponder if my honest responses to questions in prediction markets might be influencing them. To put it simply, I don’t let that concern bother me much.

Initial theories about Sassaman sparked a series of memecoins that bore his name, as well as that of his cat. These digital coins gained popularity not only on social media but also within crypto communities focused on various blockchains. Some individuals reached out to Patterson for verification and were provided with an address on the Solana blockchain for token contributions in response.

In another twist of events, Samsow Mow, a Bitcoin advocate and entrepreneur, speculated that Blockstream CEO and early Bitcoin developer Adam Back might be identified as Nakamoto. Earlier, smart-contracts pioneer Nick Szabo had momentarily led the betting odds on Polymarket, but Sassaman regained the lead later in the U.S. hours on Monday. This means that Patterson was not the only possible candidate for Nakamoto’s identity.

Back refuted Mow’s assertion, calling it a joke and tweeting a denial, saying he doesn’t know who Satoshi is. Mow is expected to appear in the documentary.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the flood of whispers and conjecture about an unverified disclosure has triggered significant shifts in investments worth millions among several contenders on Polymarket over the past day.

Currently, as of Tuesday afternoon in Hong Kong, “Other/Multiple” leads with approximately 56% of the votes, followed closely by Sassaman with around 13%. Meanwhile, Back is slightly behind with slightly more than 11%, and a total of over $13 million has been wagered on this question.