Polymarket Bettors See 84% Chance of Donald Trump Starting His Own Token

As a seasoned researcher who has followed political and cryptocurrency trends for years, I find myself intrigued by the recent surge and reversal of betting odds on Donald Trump launching a crypto token before the November election. The World Liberty Financial project, with its planned governance token “WLFI,” certainly adds an interesting twist to this already complex situation.

The likelihood of Republican nominee Donald Trump releasing a digital currency increased to approximately 84%, according to bets on Polymarket, but then decreased after he revealed a launch date for the Trump Family-backed World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency initiative.

In simple terms, the probability of Trump launching a coin prior to the election was only 40% last Thursday and just 16% a month ago. However, this might have significantly shifted within the last 12 hours following Trump’s statement that the World Liberty Financial project will be released on Monday.

The market has attracted over $1.7 million in bets by Polymarket users as of Friday. It will resolve to “Yes” if conclusive evidence emerges that Trump is involved in “deploying a new token” by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

For the market to say “Yes,” it’s not enough to just have plans or confirmations about the token; what’s needed is the actual issuance of the token on a blockchain in a manner that can be verified by everyone involved.

According to a copy of the World Liberty whitepaper reviewed by CoinDesk, the project intends to release a special type of token known as “WLFI” for governance purposes, but it’s unclear what specific role Trump has within the project or whether he will be involved in issuing this proposed token.

Still, some Polymarket users are taking their chances.

User “Car,” with more than 4,400 Yes shares in their possession, posted that the development team has already initiated several test tokens on Ethereum. Interestingly, this number of tokens is sufficient to tip the scale towards a ‘Yes’ outcome in the current market situation.

In a recent statement, the user “563defi,” who owns approximately 6,600 ‘Yes’ shares, has confirmed that non-fungible tokens are essentially tokens, in reference to Donald Trump’s collection of NFT endeavors.

Individuals on the opposing side of the wager continue to express doubt: “If a token is indeed launched, ‘Tenebrus7,’ who owns 2,000 ‘No’ shares, suggests it would belong to his son,” they noted. “Following the alleged scam, Trump is unlikely to want any connection with it in the near future.