Polymarket Bettors Put Nearly $80M on Biden’s Democratic Chances

As a seasoned crypto investor and political enthusiast, I’ve seen my fair share of market fluctuations and unexpected announcements. The recent events surrounding Joe Biden and the Democratic nomination have been particularly intriguing, with over $80 million in bets placed on various outcomes.

Approximately $80 million were wagered on six bets concerning President Joe Biden’s nomination as the Democratic Party’s candidate, as indicated by Polymarket’s data, without including stakes on bets specifically about his presidency.

In the market having the greatest number of contestants, individuals were invited to predict which Democratic nominee would emerge. The formal selection of this nominee traditionally commences for the party on August 19 during its convention. However, due to Joe Biden’s recent resignation, the details surrounding this process have become uncertain.

In total, $51.5 million was bet directly on, or against, Biden in a pool of $205 million.

As a crypto investor, I looked at the political market in late June and saw that the odds of Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee were at approximately 90%. This equated to a value of around 90 cents on the market. However, during the first fortnight of July, there was significant fluctuation as speculation swirled about Biden potentially dropping out. Nevertheless, his resolve to continue remained unwavering, and by July 17, the odds had rebounded, returning to approximately 80 cents.

Trader AnonBidenBull suffered a loss of approximately $1.8 million from a single contract, and an overall loss of around $2 million across all their related wagers on the Biden theme.

During this time, a collective $27.5 million was wagered in markets where people placed bets on possible scenarios related to Biden’s resignation.

As a crypto investor following political developments closely, I’m particularly intrigued by the significant markets that have arisen surrounding the US presidential race. The largest of these bets, worth approximately $21 million, pondered the possibility of Joe Biden withdrawing from the democratic nomination. Other markets took it a step further, requesting specific dates for his resignation or inquiring about his inclusion on certain state ballots for the presidential ticket.

The user named ‘therealbatman’ suffered a significant loss of approximately $647,500 from a single wager on this particular bet, and a total loss of roughly $1 million on all his bets related to Biden winning the popular vote.

On Twitter, Polymarket noted an intriguing observation: Before Biden’s official announcement of dropping out from the presidential race, traders had already given a strong indication of this development. The financial markets reacted swiftly and saw a surge of up to 100% in value within mere minutes before media coverage broke the news (initially reported as hours earlier, but later corrected due to time zone differences).

Market data shows a flurry of activity in the time before the announcement was made.

Based on current trends, it seems that user “polybets1” is the most successful political trader at present, with profits accruing from their investments in Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump.

Overall this trader has so far booked a profit of $691,000 on positions worth $1.7 million.