Polymarket Bettors Miss Out on $270K Due to Pavel Durov’s Early Release

As an analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I can confidently say that the recent events surrounding Telegram CEO Pavel Durov have been quite intriguing. The speed at which things unfolded took many bettors on Polymarket by surprise, and it’s always fascinating to observe how market sentiment can sometimes be so far from reality.

Previously detained by French authorities, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov is now out on bail as of August 28th. This unexpected turn of events has left users on the crypto-based prediction market, Polymarket, in disbelief, resulting in a loss of approximately $270,000 in potential winnings.

On Wednesday, Durov was officially charged and granted bail following his submission of a 5 million euro ($5.6 million) security. He agreed to check in with the police every other week and commit to staying within the country’s borders.

Initially, there seemed to be a general belief that the individual would be detained for an extended period. However, this viewpoint contrasted significantly with the likelihood suggested by the quick release. At first, the possibility of an August release was estimated at around 30%, while a release before October held a probability of 75%-90%. Remarkably, as French authorities were about to announce his release on bail, the odds of an August release jumped up to 50%.

Every wager consists of two possibilities: one positive (affirmative) and one negative (negative). Each share will reward you $1 in USDC, a digital currency equivalent to the U.S. dollar, only if the prediction proves accurate; otherwise, you receive nothing.

In summary, bettors potentially lost a total of $270,000 by placing wagers that Durov would not be released in August or before October. It appears that many bettors had faith in the French authorities to prolong Durov’s detention for as long as possible.

Given his substantial fortune and diverse citizenship, particularly in countries like the United Arab Emirates that don’t extradite their citizens, many wagered that Durov had the resources to elude the country. Consequently, they speculated that France would go to great lengths to keep him under detention.

From the opposite perspective, user Champ accurately predicted that Durov would be freed by August and prior to October, holding the most significant stake on the “Yes” side for both agreements.

Champ ended up with a total of $26,138 from the two contracts. When this was combined with their initial bet’s worth, they walked away with a grand total of $56,638.

A different agreement allows Durov approximately a 6% possibility of leaving France before the end of this month, implying that bookmakers anticipate he will adhere to the conditions set in his bail.

Although Durov’s legal disputes have been a hot topic in the crypto world this week, they will not take center stage during Donald Trump’s live townhall event in Wisconsin on Thursday evening.

Bettors are only giving a 14% chance he’ll mention Durov’s name during the event, compared to a 92% chance he’ll say “MAGA” and an 84% chance he’ll use the term “Border Czar.”

However, Trump can often be unpredictable.

In a recent conversation, Elon Musk’s predictions about the former president mentioning “Tesla” attracted over $250,000 in wagers. The odds peaked at 79% that he would say it. However, during their interaction, the former president instead referred to Tesla only as “your cars.”