Oh, the Folly! $3B Crypto Options Expire-Will Markets Weep or Laugh?

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Ah, behold the grand spectacle of the markets, where fortunes dangle by a thread as thin as a courtier’s wit! This very Friday, the 13th of February-a date as ominous as a miser’s grin-some 38,000 Bitcoin options contracts shall expire, bearing a notional value of $2.5 billion. A sum so grand, it could make a baron blush! And yet, this farce is but a trifle larger than last week’s expiring jest.

The crypto realm, alas, remains mired in its bear market folly, shedding $125 billion since the week’s dawn. Sentiment plunges like a fallen noble, and the exodus of retail and institutional fools continues apace. Oh, the tragedy of it all!

The Bitcoin Options Farce

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options, with a put/call ratio of 0.76, reveals more longs than shorts-a dance of hope and despair. Max pain, they say, lies at $75,000, a figure as distant as a philosopher’s wisdom from the current spot price. Many shall find their dreams out of the money, their pockets lighter than a courtier’s promise.

Open interest, that fickle measure of contracts yet to expire, lingers highest at $60,000 and now piles up at $50,000, with over $1 billion in bearish bets on Deribit. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges climbs to $36.6 billion-a mountain of folly, if ever there was one. The analyst ‘Laevitas’ speaks of a “bear put spread,” a maneuver as convoluted as a lawyer’s argument, involving higher and lower strike puts with the same expiry.

“With BTC stabilizing and volume cooling from panic levels, the key question is whether expiry acts as a magnet toward $75K or clears the way for the next directional move,” declares Deribit, with all the gravitas of a soothsayer at a carnival.

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.9B in crypto options expire on Deribit.
$BTC: $2.53B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K
$ETH: $406M notional | Put/Call: 0.89 | Max Pain: $2,150

After last week’s break below $70K triggered liquidations and…
– Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 12, 2026

Greeks Live, ever the observer of market whimsy, notes that put options dominate, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume. Most are out-of-the-money options priced between $60,000 and $65,000-a testament to institutions’ bearish outlook, as gloomy as a storm on a holiday.

“This indicates that institutions hold a negative outlook on the medium-to-long-term market trajectory, with a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months,” they proclaim, as if reading the stars for guidance.

And let us not forget the 217,000 Ethereum contracts expiring, with a notional value of $406 million, max pain at $2,150, and a put/call ratio of 0.89. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges stands at $7 billion, bringing the total notional value of crypto options expiries to a staggering $2.9 billion. A sum so vast, it could fund a dozen royal banquets!

The Spot Market’s Woes

The total market capitalization, ever the barometer of collective folly, dips another 1.5% to $2.34 trillion as the sell-off persists. Bitcoin weakens, falling to just above $65,000 in late trading on Thursday, and trades just above $66,000 during Friday’s Asian session. Analysts, those eternal Cassandras, predict a bottom near or below $55,000-a realization price as grim as a tax collector’s visit.

Ether, poor soul, remains below $2,000, hitting an intraday low of $1,900. Continued weakness in BTC shall drag ETH further into the abyss in the weeks to come. Oh, the folly of it all! When will these markets learn that greed and fear are but two sides of the same coin?

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2026-02-13 09:38