As an experienced financial analyst, I’ve closely followed the developments in the world of stablecoins with great interest. Deutsche Bank’s recent analysis on the sustainability of most stablecoins based on their internal study of 334 currency pegs over the past 200 years resonates with my own observations and concerns.
As a researcher conducting an in-depth analysis at Deutsche Bank, I’ve examined the historical performance of 334 currency pegs spanning the last 200 years. Based on my findings, I believe most stablecoins may be destined for failure.
- “Some may survive, although most will likely fail,” wrote the German banking powerhouse in a study published on Tuesday.
- The analysts argued that the few FX pegs that have held staying power since the year 1800 operated with credibility, reserves, and a tightly controlled environment – all things they say stablecoins lack.
- Tether (USDT) – the world’s largest stablecoin with a $110 billion market cap – has a “monopoly in the stablecoin market that has been filled with speculation and lack of transparency,” they said.
- Tether regularly publishes reserve attestation reports with help from BDO – the fifth-largest accounting network in the world. Unlike its largest competitor, Circle, it’s yet to undergo a full audit from a Big Four accounting firm.
- Before publishing its attestation reports, Tether was forced to pay $41 million in fines to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for misleading statements about its reserve composition.
- Studying past currency pegs, researchers noted that stablecoin issuers should pay attention to macroeconomic factors.
- “Issues around governance and speculative forces could also indicate when there’s a possibility of de-pegging,” they said.
- Tether responded to Deutsche Bank’s report saying it relied on “vague assertions” to back its claims, lacking “concrete data to forecast a decline in stablecoins more broadly.
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2024-05-14 07:27