As an experienced analyst, I believe that the recent speculation about Bitcoin miners capitulating and selling large quantities of their holdings is a valid concern given the current market conditions. However, based on my analysis of various metrics and data points, I don’t think we are at the point of a complete and total miner fire sale yet.
Recent developments have sparked growing debate among cryptocurrency analysts about the possibility of Bitcoin miners giving up due to rising production costs, decelerating hash rates, and declining asset prices.
In a video released on June 21, analyst James Check examined the amount of selling pressure from miners to gauge the intensity of the miner sell-off.
It’s common for miners to sell their cryptocurrency holdings following a halving event, as the reduction in their block rewards is inevitable.
Some people have been debating if #Bitcoin miners are giving up and artificially lowering the price.
So I ran the numbers, and analysed both current, and ancient miner sell side pressure.
Now live for @_checkonchain subscribers.
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) June 21, 2024
Bitcoin Miners Selling
An expert like myself would put it this way: I examined the Puell multiple, a metric derived by dividing the daily value of newly issued bitcoins by the average daily value over the past year. According to my analysis, miners are experiencing some pressure, but they’re not yet at a point of extreme distress.
He stated that if the market continues to drop, they may reach a point of giving up and selling off their assets at any price, which is referred to as capitulation. At present, however, they seem precariously balanced on the brink.
As an analyst, I’ve observed the phenomenon referred to as a “hash ribbon inversion.” This occurs when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate dips below the 60-day moving average. Essentially, it signals a challenging phase where less profitable miners are compelled to shut down their rigs.
Additionally, the total hash rate decrease amounts to only 4%, indicating a relatively modest decline compared to past instances of mining strain.
Miners could be dispensing some of their funds without giving it all away in a panic sell. This implies they may merely be maintaining their current financial position.
“This doesn’t feel like a real painful bear market capitulation,” he concluded.
As a researcher, I came across a fascinating perspective shared by my colleague Willy Woo in a recent post on June 21. According to him, the price of bitcoin is expected to bounce back once “inefficient miners exit the market,” leading to a recovery in the overall hash rate.
“He noted that this event will go down in history due to the prolonged miner resistance following the halving, and further mentioned the potential contribution of ordinal inscriptions to increased earnings.”
I’ll break it down in simple terms.
When does #Bitcoin recover? It’s when weak miners die and hash rate recovers.
This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving.
Probably can thank ordinal inscriptions boosting profits.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 20, 2024
BTC Price Outlook
On June 21, Bitcoin dipped to a five-week low of $63,550. However, it bounced back during Asian trading on Saturday and regained the $64,000 mark.
Expert “Don Alt” expressed concern that markets had reached a critical point on the weekly chart, going so far as to label it a “make-or-break” situation. Subsequently, he reiterated his viewpoint, stating unequivocally that he was not looking forward to another test of the $60,000 price range.
Should the current support level give way, causing Bitcoin’s price to drop, the next line of defense lies at $52,000 according to his assessment. Reaching this point could potentially trigger a wave of miner capitulation, intensifying downward selling pressures.
$BTC
At a do-or-die weekly level here
As I stated before I really don’t like the $60k range low for another test
This one is better, untested support
If it breaks I think we’ll go to the next support indicated, if it holds new ATHs are likely
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) June 21, 2024
Read More
- W PREDICTION. W cryptocurrency
- PENDLE PREDICTION. PENDLE cryptocurrency
- AEVO PREDICTION. AEVO cryptocurrency
- AAVE PREDICTION. AAVE cryptocurrency
- REF PREDICTION. REF cryptocurrency
- PROM PREDICTION. PROM cryptocurrency
- ETC PREDICTION. ETC cryptocurrency
- CEL PREDICTION. CEL cryptocurrency
- VR PREDICTION. VR cryptocurrency
- ISP PREDICTION. ISP cryptocurrency
2024-06-23 16:29