Kalshi Research Finds ‘Widespread Evidence’ of Strong Republican Momentum in U.S. Elections

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in political and financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of twists and turns. The current state of the U.S. presidential election is no exception. The recent Kalshi report suggesting a strong Republican momentum, particularly for Donald Trump, aligns with my observations. However, the mysterious high-stakes bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” has raised some eyebrows, to say the least.

On Kalshi and similar forecasting platforms, Republican candidate Donald Trump holds a substantial advantage over his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. This dominance has sparked allegations of undue influence by shadowy funds, but a fresh analysis from Kalshi proposes a robust backing for Trump and implies that the contest might not be closely contested.

At the moment, Trump holds a significant lead over Harris on Kalshi, standing at 56% to her 44%, with an increase in support becoming evident towards the beginning of November – this upsurge coincides with Trump’s rise in popularity on Polymarket a few days prior.

It wasn’t entirely surprising that Trump’s chances on Kalshi increased, as Jack Such, a market analyst at Kalshi, pointed out in a note on Wednesday.

According to a recent analysis, Kamala Harris is struggling among key voter groups and has seen declines in every “Blue Wall” state over the last three weeks. Notably, her support among black men, a traditional stronghold for Democrats, is notably weaker than that of President Obama.

Given the increasing likelihood of Trump winning the popular vote, it is noted that there’s no miscalculation because the odds align with his prospects for victory in the general election.

In simpler terms, as the probability of Trump winning the main presidential market shifted, it was only at the cost of him potentially losing the popular vote while still having a chance to win the electoral college. This indicates that the theory on Kalshi regarding a Trump victory is based more on his broad support rather than a narrow victory in one or two crucial swing states.

Trump’s predicted increase in the popular vote is mainly driven by North Carolina, where his chances of a landslide victory have significantly improved from 3.5% to 19%. Additionally, there are gains in Pennsylvania (4%) and a narrow lead in Michigan, indicating that the so-called Blue Wall for Harris may be starting to crumble.

Dark money or a French connection?

Trump’s rise isn’t confined to a single forecasting market; his progress is noticeable not just in Polymarket, but also on the British betting platform, Betfair.

However, large pro-Trump wagers on Polymarket, a platform lacking a know-your-customer (KYC) protocol, raise suspicions among some in the political forecasting community, leading them to speculate whether undisclosed funds might be attempting to influence these financial markets.

It’s been discovered that an enigmatic individual known as “Fredi9999” has made a series of significant wagers totaling $25 million, all in favor of Trump, within the realm of prediction markets. This revelation was made by a seasoned whale in Polymarket, referred to as ‘Domer’.

Based on investigations conducted by Domer, it seems that the individual known as Fredi might be using several different accounts: Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo. These accounts appear to receive substantial deposits from Kraken, such as $500,000 or $1 million.

As a researcher, I’ve noticed that each of these accounts seems to adhere to a consistent betting pattern, primarily focusing on Trump’s ventures. It appears this strategy is employed to camouflage these trades as independent transactions, rather than as part of a unified, orchestrated investment.

In simple terms, Domer had a quick chat with Fredi over Discord, and the interpretation of their conversation was passed on to someone whose native language is French for linguistic analysis.

However, it remains unclear as to the motive behind Fredi’s actions. Could it be that we are dealing with an operative attempting to manipulate funds for the purpose of swaying an election in favor of Trump? Or, could it simply be a well-off French trader who is deeply supportive of Donald Trump?

As an analyst, I’ve noticed a noteworthy observation on Twitter regarding the theory of dark money influencing Trump’s surge. The intriguing part is that this rise seems consistent across various market sectors and, aligning with my own analysis at Kalshi, it appears to be mirrored in the polls as well.