As a seasoned crypto investor with battle scars from multiple market cycles, I’ve learned to read between the lines when it comes to Bitcoin (BTC) price action and technical analysis. The recent bullish reversal of BTC is indeed intriguing, as it found support at critical Fibonacci levels, a pattern that has often marked significant turning points in the past.
Bitcoin has seen a robust upturn following a significant rebound at a crucial support area marked by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
Currently, Bitcoin is nearing its 100-day moving average priced around $61,600. This could potentially lead to strong resistance from sellers, implying a possible brief pause or stabilization in the near future.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
Looking closely at Bitcoin’s daily graph shows that following a drop near the critical support area around $56,300 and $52,100 (which are Fibonacci levels), there was significant buying interest, causing a swift rebound. This upward push resulted in approximately a 15% rise towards the 100-day moving average at $61,600, a notable resistance point.
At present, the market trends indicate that buyers have returned, hoping for additional gains. Yet, Bitcoin is now in a significant zone, with resistance at $61,600 and support around the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. A temporary pause or consolidation could happen here before any further movement.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to have reversed at the $53,000 support, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This event initiated a steady uptrend. The fact that it didn’t drop below $52K-$54K again suggests significant buying activity, curbing the previous downward trend. Bitcoin is currently approaching a tough resistance zone near $65,000, a level where price action has been difficult in the past.
Should buyers push the price above this zone, the next target will be the $70K resistance. However, if the price is rejected at $65K, a bearish pullback toward the $52K-$54K psychological support could follow.
On-Chain Analysis
By Shayan
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is a frequently used tool for evaluating general market sentiment. This metric is obtained by dividing the market capitalization by the realized capitalization. When this ratio dips below 1, it usually means that most investors are experiencing losses, a situation often linked to the development of bear market bottoms over an extended duration.
Lately, the MVRV ratio is now dipping below its one-year moving average, a point in history often associated with market rebounds. For long-term investors, this might present an opportunity. However, it’s crucial to approach with care.
A meaningful recovery is typically signaled once the MVRV ratio climbs back above this key level. In previous market cycles, such a move has often been a turning point, leading to renewed investor confidence. However, current conditions, characterized by heightened fear and uncertainty, suggest that any recovery may take longer to unfold. As such, adopting a cautious and patient approach remains vital during this period.
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2024-09-15 20:54