DOGE/BTC Bear Trend Intact After Dogecoin’s 24% Weekly Gain

As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, I have seen my fair share of market cycles and trends. The recent surge in Dogecoin (DOGE) has certainly piqued my interest, but it’s important not to jump to conclusions just yet.

As an analyst, I find myself observing a remarkable surge in the value of Dogecoin (DOGE), often referred to as the globe’s premier meme-based cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Over the past week alone, DOGE has experienced a significant 24% increase, outperforming the gains made by other key players in the crypto world, such as the industry titan Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, a prolonged decline in the Dogecoin-to-Bitcoin (DOGE/BTC) ratio that started back in May 2021 continues, as shown by charting platform TradingView. This ratio signifies the value of Dogecoin in terms of Bitcoin.

In simpler terms, it seems premature to fret about another 2021-style speculative bubble in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), as the current upward trend could still have a lot of momentum left to continue.

In the beginning of 2021, Dogecoin (DOGE) frequently surpassed Bitcoin (BTC), leading to a nearly 1,000% increase in the DOGE/BTC value during the first four months. However, around May 2021, there was a general market downturn, causing BTC to plummet from approximately $60,000 to as low as $30,000.

Interpreting Dogecoin as an asset with little inherent worth and primarily used for speculative purposes, its sudden price increases are often viewed as red flags predicting potential market turbulence. The recent 24% spike in Dogecoin’s value against the US dollar arises from Elon Musk’s suggestion of a hypothetical government agency called D.O.G.E., which has sparked speculation about increased crypto influence under a possible Trump administration.

The graph indicates that DOGE/BTC could be on its way up, having possibly hit rock bottom as suggested by the line connecting the peak values in May 2021 and November 2022, which represent periods of a bear market.

This week, I’ve observed an impressive surge exceeding 10% as the market has managed to hold above the horizontal support established at the early February lows. This upward movement seems to be driven by a bullish shift in momentum, a transition signaled by the MACD histogram – a technical indicator that uses moving averages to help traders identify trend changes and their strength.

If the price breaks through the current trendline, it could signal the end of the bear market, paving the way for significant growth in Dogecoin (DOGE) compared to other cryptocurrencies.

A replay of 2020-21?

Currently, the pricing setup mirrors that of 2020, where the Dogecoin-to-Bitcoin (DOGE/BTC) ratio maintained a persistent downward trend for an extended period.

In December, the ratio surpassed the downward trendline from the bear market, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) switched to a bullish signal. This transition is often referred to as the “speculative excitement” phase.