Does World Liberty Financial Count as Trump ‘Launching a Coin’? Polymarket Bettors Are Divided

Unconventionally, a political candidate is planning to establish a business during their campaign trail, and this is exactly what Donald Trump is intending to do tomorrow with the debut of his Decentralized Finance (DeFi) venture called World Liberty Financial.

On a Monday X space, the team behind the project said they are looking to raise $300 million with the token sale and have 100,000 accredited investors on the whitelist.

Despite the fact that Trump family members and associates have confirmed the development of a token during a September live stream, and a post on X hinting at a forthcoming public sale, a Polymarket contract predicts only an 83% probability of Trump launching a coin prior to the election.

Why the uncertainty? It’s over whether this counts as Trump “launching a coin.”

According to the market’s guidelines, it will affirm positively if there is indisputable, conclusive proof that Donald Trump played a role in launching a new token by Election Day, as agreed upon by reliable and trustworthy sources.

Some are contesting Trump’s “involvement.”

A user called Asherwow, who owns approximately 8,700 shares on the “No” side of the agreement, made a point in the discussion area of Polymarket, stating that merely being an affiliate doesn’t always imply participation in the rollout of the cryptocurrency.

In my findings, it seems that mere indirect business connections may not suffice; there could potentially be other significant factors at play. (Asherwow’s original statement: Trump would have to be more than just having an “indirect business relation” for it to count.)

A user known as Lawyered.eth refers to language in the white paper, initially reported by CoinDesk, stating that World Liberty Financial is neither owned, run, controlled, nor marketed by Donald J. Trump, the Trump Organization, or their relatives, associates, or key figures… Furthermore, World Liberty Financial and $WLFI have no political ties and are not associated with any political campaign.

As an analyst, I’d rephrase that statement like this: From my perspective, those advocating for ‘yes’ tend to adopt a broader interpretation of what constitutes “involvement.” They argue that the skeptics are unduly focusing on minor details, or being excessively meticulous.

One person who holds a ‘Yes’ token wondered if it would be appropriate for him to personally create the smart contract and supply the liquidity to Uniswap as well.

If the contract concludes past November 4th and there’s a disagreement about the results, the matter will be forwarded to UMA, a decentralized oracle service that acts as a referee for the platform’s cryptocurrency-based prediction markets. The resolution will be decided by UMA token holders, although it is worth noting that Polymarket has previously overruled UMA’s decisions.

PoliFi vs. Polymarket

The likelihood of Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. election has significantly increased this month, shifting a close race at the start of October into a substantial lead of approximately 8.5 percentage points in betting markets like Polymarket.

According to Steele’s statement in an interview with CoinDesk, investing in TRUMP stock is becoming increasingly appealing as it seems Donald Trump may win the election. This move could draw more funds into TRUMP, and it presents a higher potential return compared to the betting markets.

As a researcher, I find it interesting to note that should Trump secure the victory, Polymarket traders who have wagered on his success stand to receive $1 in cryptocurrency for each “yes” share they own. Conversely, meme coins offer no tangible returns and are purely driven by the energy and sentiment surrounding them.

Previous efforts have focused on boosting the benefits of forecast market platforms, such as decentralized exchanges (DEXs), by incorporating leveraged trading options within Polymarket agreements.

Market data, however, shows this hasn’t really caught on quite yet.

Investigating DEX D8X’s leveraged forecast market reveals limited open positions and a maximum 2 times leverage for traders betting on the ‘yes’ side regarding Trump.

Over the past day, I’ve noticed that the trading volume of TRUMP tokens has reached approximately $9.3 million, as per data from CoinGecko. This significant activity has propelled the token’s market capitalization beyond the $200 million mark.

Canadian election?

Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, is encountering unrest among senior Liberal members of parliament and the ongoing possibility of a vote of no confidence – a characteristic of the Westminster system that allows opposition parties to potentially bring down governments. However, those betting on Polymarket don’t foresee an election in Canada for the 2024 term.

Approximately twenty Liberal members of parliament are said to have signed a petition advocating for Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation, citing his falling public approval. According to pollster Angus Reid, Trudeau currently enjoys a 30% approval rating. Given that opposition parties in Canada hold more seats than the ruling party with a minority government, wouldn’t this situation suggest an upcoming election period?

Not quite.

Even though the Liberals don’t have a majority in parliament, they’ve been able to stay in control by securing the backing of at least one additional party during votes that test their confidence.

Both the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP have recently chosen not to support a no-confidence motion led by the Conservatives. Their leaders, Yves-Francois Blanchet of the Bloc and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP, have indicated they’re unwilling to take the risk of calling an election that might benefit the Conservatives.

Polymarket bettors give approximately the same chances of that happening as an election.

Despite Trudeau being personally disliked, it appears that the current situation will continue as long as other opposition parties in Canada haven’t put forth a vote to express no confidence, keeping things as they are for now.