Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance’s Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket

As a researcher with a background in political science and experience in analyzing prediction markets, I find the developments surrounding Sen. J.D. Vance’s potential vice presidential nomination an intriguing observation. The data from Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform, indicates that traders assign a 29% probability to Vance becoming Trump’s running mate. This is a significant increase from the 14% odds he held just a week ago.

According to traders on the Polymarket prediction market platform, Sen. J.D. Vance, an Ohio Republican advocating for digital asset regulation reform, has a roughly 29% probability of being selected as former President Donald Trump’s running mate in future elections.

The chances of Vance being selected as the Republican Party’s vice presidential nominee have significantly increased from 14% a week ago on the betting platform that uses USDC, a stablecoin equivalent to the U.S. dollar or cryptocurrency with a fixed exchange rate.

Among the 25 potential Republican vice presidential nominees suggested in a Polymarket contract, which has attracted $65 million in wagers, J.D. Vance, the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and a venture capitalist, ranks second with the highest odds of being chosen at approximately 29%. However, the frontrunner is currently someone not included in the list, with a probability of around 33% for securing the nomination.

Traders have the option to invest in binary shares for each candidate. The value of these shares is determined as either “$1 in USDC” or “nothing” based on the accuracy of the prediction. Consequently, the market price, such as 29 cents for a “yes” share in Vance, signifies the likelihood of the forecasted event occurring.

Among the 14 potential Republican vice presidential nominees, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum holds a significant lead with a contract involving $7.6 million in wagers, giving him a 30% chance of being chosen based on current betting trends. The surge in political betting on Polymarket, a four-year-old platform, has seen impressive volume in 2024 as voters and enthusiasts eagerly anticipate the upcoming November U.S. election.

Trump is projected to reveal his choice for the vice presidential nominee either preceding or during the Republican National Convention from July 15 to July 18. Three other potential candidates include Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, and former presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy.

Based on the latest news, neither Vance nor Rubio had received an invitation from Trump as of last Sunday to be his vice presidential nominee.

Vance is widely regarded as a contender within the crypto community due to his initiatives aimed at clarifying the regulatory landscape for digital assets. As reported by Politico, this Senate Banking Committee member has been circulating a proposed bill that aims to significantly change how the United States oversees digital assets.

As a crypto investor, I’ve heard from reliable sources that the new proposal being considered is more favorable to cryptocurrencies than the bill that previously passed in the House back in June.