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BTC’s Path to New ATH Is Full of Obstacles but Whales’ Activity Brings Hope: Bitcoin Price Analysis

May 26, 2024

As a researcher with extensive experience in the cryptocurrency market, I believe that the current price action of bitcoin at the $72K resistance level is crucial for determining its next major move. Based on my technical analysis of both the daily and 4-hour charts, I believe that this level has acted as a significant barrier for several weeks due to its high supply and substantial selling pressure.

After a moderate bounce back from key support at $59,000 and the 100-day moving average, bitcoin is now testing a crucial resistance point at $72,000.

The price action at this key level likely sheds light on the cryptocurrency’s next major move.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

As an analyst, I’ve conducted an intricate examination of Bitcoin’s daily price chart. Notably, I’ve identified the $72K-$74K range as a significant resistance level. This price zone has thwarted numerous upward attempts in the recent past. The reason behind this persistent resistance lies in the substantial supply existing within this range. Consequently, sellers have exerted considerable pressure, making it a formidable hurdle for Bitcoin buyers to surmount.

For nearly a month, Bitcoin investors have been making efforts to surmount a formidable resistance level. Once they manage to push through this pivotal point unexpectedly, it could set off a substantial price increase as a result of a major short squeeze occurrence, possibly culminating in a new peak record.

Alternatively, at this critical turning point, there’s a chance it could obstruct progress, resulting in a phase of lateral movement and small pullbacks. In such a case, the 100-day moving average at $64,700 would be pivotal as a key support line in the intermediate term.

The 4-Hour Chart

Analyzing the 4-hour chart reveals that once Bitcoin surpassed the $65,000 resistance, demand significantly boosted its price to reach around $72,000. This level corresponds with the upper limit of a long-term descending triangle, indicating a substantial supply in the market.

The heightened demand to sell around $72,000 has triggered a discernible decline in price, causing subdued market activity. At present, there’s a potential head and shoulders chart formation close to the upper limit, as sellers strive to push the asset below the trendline (green line). A break beneath this support could suggest a prolonged bearish trend, potentially leading to the crucial $65,000 price level.

For now, the price remains confined within a tight range, bounded by the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the crucial resistance of the wedge’s upper boundary. An impending breakout from this range will likely determine bitcoin’s next trajectory.BTC’s Path to New ATH Is Full of Obstacles but Whales’ Activity Brings Hope: Bitcoin Price Analysis

On-Chain Analysis

By Shayan

Market psychology places great importance on profitability, particularly for significant market players such as “whales.” Analyzing the profitability of these influential figures offers valuable perspectives on prevailing market sentiments and conditions. The enclosed chart showcases the realized price metric for both newly identified and established whale groups. This metric signifies the percentage of Bitcoin supply that is currently generating a profit for each cohort.

I’ve analyzed the graph and found that the realized price of old whale transactions has functioned as a substantial support level for bitcoin during major market cycles. On the other hand, the realized price of new whale transactions has emerged as a vital support during the recent bullish trend leading up to the all-time high of $74K.

Following a rejection from the $74K mark and during the subsequent consolidation correction phase, the realized price of new whales continued to support bitcoin, contributing to a robust price surge. Consequently, the realized price of new whales has become a key reference point for BTC in the short term, potentially bolstering the price and mitigating downward pressures.

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2024-05-27 15:06