As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market cycles and trends. The current situation with Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be exhibiting signs that could indicate a potential trend reversal. The higher low observed recently, along with the bullish sentiments expressed by analysts like Kaleo, Rekt Capital, and Sykodelic, gives credence to this possibility.
In a descending market, I notice that the latest drop isn’t as pronounced as the preceding ones. This could be indicative of a potential trend reversal, as the selling pressure seems to be diminishing.
Recently, Bitcoin prices dropped to a minimum of $53,300, which wasn’t as significant a fall as the crash on Aug. 5 that took it almost below $50,000. The lowest point prior to this was a dip to $54,200 on July 5. It appears that Bitcoin has established a strong foundation for itself.
In my recent analysis, I noticed a certain phenomenon, which I documented on X on September 10th. However, it’s important to note that this observation does not definitively exclude the possibility of experiencing even lower lows in the future.
Did BTC just put in its first higher low in 6 months?
— Mando (@rektmando) September 9, 2024
$BTC
Causally putting in its first higher low in almost 200 days…
Potential rate cuts next week…
Fear & greed – extreme fear…
Bottom signals flying left and right….
Time to pray.
— cousin crypto (@cousincrypt0) September 9, 2024
Analysts Remain Bullish
As an analyst, I find myself sharing the optimistic outlook of ‘Kaleo.’ Bitcoin appears to be in a stronger position now compared to where it was at this stage following the halving in the previous cycle.
141 days following the halving, Bitcoin had dropped by just 19% compared to its previous peak in a prior cycle. Conversely, in the year 2020, Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 46% from its 2017 high point during the same timeframe post-halving.
“When we rip out of the range into new ATHs this time around, institutional money can funnel in easier with spot ETFs, we have more regulatory clarity, and we might finally have a president that’s pro-crypto as one of his key running points.”
According to analyst ‘Rekt Capital’, by studying past halving events, it appears that if history follows a similar pattern, the highest point of the subsequent bull market might be reached between approximately 518 and 546 days following the halving event.
“That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.”
#BTC
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving
If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…
That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle…
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 9, 2024
Similarly, the full-time cryptocurrency trader known as ‘Sykodelic’ stated, “I am 95% convinced that we have reached the bottom at $52,500.
They stated with a high degree of assurance, approximately 95%, that we’re unlikely to encounter anywhere close to $44k in terms of price, under any circumstances. This conclusion was drawn based on an analysis of the USDT (Tether) dominance chart, which currently reflects bear market conditions and exhibits inconsistencies with Bitcoin prices.
From my perspective, investing is more like playing odds, and given the current market conditions, the chances seem heavily tilted towards potential gains.
Inflation Woes Linger
According to analyst James Check, the poor sentiment is due to a decrease in purchasing power, which has been caused by a prolonged period (the last three years) of high inflation that has diminished the value of the dollar, resulting in fewer items being able to be bought with it.
It might be because in 2020, the price was about 40% lower compared to the all-time high in 2021, whereas it is currently only 25% below its current all-time high.
Why does #Bitcoin sentiment feel so bad?
It’s possible that the reason for this is because in 2020, the purchasing power made the price fall approximately 40% below its all-time high (ATH) in 2021, compared to being only around 25% lower than its current ATH.
This assumes that the real inflation is ~2-3x more than CPI reported (at least).
Same as 2019 peak.
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) September 9, 2024
In simpler terms, the real inflation rate tends to exceed what’s shown in Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, and it seems that investors are experiencing this during the current economic period.
BTC was trading up 3.3% on the day at $56,648 at the time of writing.
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2024-09-10 09:07