As a seasoned financial analyst with over two decades of experience, I have witnessed the unpredictable dance between politics and finance. In light of Standard Chartered’s prediction, I find myself intrigued by their optimism towards Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. The bank’s foresight in recognizing the potential impact of the U.S. elections, Treasury market shifts, and regulatory changes is commendable.
According to Standard Chartered’s predictions, Bitcoin (BTC) could reach unprecedented peak values by the year 2024.
According to Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets at a bank, as reported by CoinDesk, Bitcoin could potentially reach $125,000 if former U.S. President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, or it may top out at $75,000 under a presidency led by Kamala Harris.
Political Impact on Bitcoin
During presidential elections, they often have an effect on financial markets. However, Standard Chartered predicts that this year’s election result may have a smaller influence on Bitcoin compared to the impact seen during the previous Biden-Trump race.
Kendrick stated that regardless of who assumes office, the market expects significant regulatory advancements will happen. More specifically, there’s a high probability that SAB 121, a stringent accounting regulation governing banks’ digital asset holdings established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will be abolished in 2025. This move could create a powerful boost for Bitcoin.
According to the bank’s report, it was pointed out that although Trump appears more favorable towards cryptocurrencies compared to Harris, her administration is unlikely to stop the growth of Bitcoin, but could potentially delay the rate at which regulatory advancements occur.
The bank’s chief of crypto anticipates that changes in the U.S. government bond market, specifically the re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, will contribute to Bitcoin’s development. He noted that the difference between expected inflation and real yields (break-evens) is decreasing at a slower pace compared to the actual yields.
The simultaneous decrease in risk-free interest rates and steady term premiums is creating a favorable trend, as market observers refer to it, for Bitcoin’s future price direction.
Miner Activity Set to Influence Prices
Previously, Standard Chartered has expressed optimism regarding Bitcoin’s price fluctuations on more than one occasion. In fact, they predicted that the outcome of the recent U.S. elections could significantly influence Bitcoin’s market value.
If Trump were to return to office, it was predicted that Bitcoin might soar up to $150,000 by year-end, as the lender felt that political factors, coupled with regulatory and economic changes, would create a solid base for Bitcoin’s growth in the upcoming months.
In a recent report published in July, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its belief that Bitcoin could potentially reach $120,000. This optimistic view is largely based on the improved profitability of Bitcoin miners. According to the report’s author, Kendrick, the current price surge allows miners to generate higher profits per mined Bitcoin, which in turn means they can sell fewer coins and still maintain their financial flow.
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2024-09-13 07:18