As a seasoned researcher with extensive experience in the cryptocurrency market, I have witnessed numerous price fluctuations and trends throughout the years. The recent rally in Bitcoin’s price, which has surged back to $67,000 after hovering around $64,000, is a sight that brings both hope and caution to investors like myself.


Over the past few days, I’ve noticed a substantial rally in bitcoin (BTC) prices. This could be an indication that we’ve reached the bottom for this crypto asset, which has now surged to a high of $67,000 from around $64,000 where it stood when I last checked. This turnaround follows a period when many investors, including myself, experienced our largest losses in 2024.

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis of on-chain data, there are signs of optimism in the short term due to improving metrics. However, this positive trend might not last since the expansion in stablecoin reserves and Bitcoin demand has remained stagnant.

Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Out

Last week, BTC investors incurred approximately $2.5 billion in losses over a two-day period, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis. Notably, Bitcoin then experienced a rebound and price increase following this period. This occurrence might signify seller capitulation – a phenomenon often linked to market bottoms.

One indication that bitcoin may have reached its lowest point is the decrease in selling pressure from major entities, such as the German government and the Mt. Gox rehabilitation estate. The German government no longer holds any Bitcoin to sell, and Mt. Gox has transferred its Bitcoin holdings to exchanges to initiate the distribution process to creditors.

Bitcoin traders’ unrealized profits have hit record lows, reaching levels not seen since right after the failure of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022. Last week, this figure dipped as low as a 17% loss and is now at -5.7%. Such deep losses are often an indicator that prices have reached their lowest point.

“According to valuation analysis, Bitcoin’s price appears to have hit rock bottom, as indicated by positive market signals. The P&L Index of CryptoQuant rebounded above its 365-day moving average (marked in red), signaling a potential local minimum and the possibility of further upward trend.”

The Catch

Despite the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator from CryptoQuant suggesting that bitcoin is still in a bull market, the demand for the cryptocurrency has yet to rebound significantly. A robust and quickening demand growth is crucial for driving prices up to new heights; however, at present, the demand for bitcoin remains negative.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the liquidity of stablecoins like Tether’s USDT hasn’t picked up significantly yet. The monthly growth rate of this stablecoin remains stagnant at nearly 0%. To sustain any potential price hikes, we need to see faster expansion in stablecoin liquidity.

According to CryptoQuant’s assessment, there are indicators aligning with Bitfinex’s observation that Bitcoin may experience further price drops in the coming days due to specific reasons.

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2024-07-20 15:16