- BTC’s 200-day SMA is close to shedding its bullish bias for the first time since October.Short-term averages have already flipped bearish.The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is likely to show the U.S. jobless rate ticked lower in August.
Starting from late August, the daily average increase in the gauge has been less than $50, significantly lower than the over $200 jumps observed earlier this year, as per data from TradingView. Currently, it is at $63,840 and bitcoin’s spot price is $55,880.
The decrease in fluctuation suggests that the average has reached its slowdown point for the first time since October, possibly indicating a pause or an upcoming shift towards a downward trend. This negative trend change is not entirely unlikely, given that the short-term moving averages, such as the 50- and 100-day measures, have already peaked and started to decline. Most recently, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has fallen below the 200-day SMA, signaling a bearish crossing event.
Unitedly, they indicate a decrease in optimism and an increase in vigilance that corresponds to the growing economic uncertainty on a larger scale.
On X Friday, the LondonCryptoClub’s newsletter stated that the current situation appears quite unfavorable due to the swift increase in market concerns about a potential global economic downturn. However, they suggested that the final drop in Bitcoin could pave the way for a more significant upswing in the future.
According to Alex Kuptsikevish, a seasoned market analyst at The FxPro, the general sentiment of caution in the wider financial market isn’t doing any favors.
The daily chart also shows major support at around $50,000, characterized by a trendline connecting corrective lows reached in May and July.
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The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for August could potentially cause fluctuations in prices, as analysts at FXStreet predict a growth of 160,000 jobs compared to the 114,000 increase seen in July. They also anticipate that the unemployment rate will decrease from the near three-year high of 4.2% recorded in July to 4.2%.
A poor performance in print might heighten worries about a recession and increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 0.5% this month, which could provide support to risky assets like bitcoin. However, traders should remain vigilant for a repeat of the stock and cryptocurrency market turbulence seen in August.
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2024-09-06 14:25