As an experienced analyst, I find the current Bitcoin market situation intriguing. The price has been unable to break through the $70,000 resistance level for quite some time now, and each attempt to do so has failed. Moreover, new research indicates that the retail crowd has yet to enter the market in significant numbers.
For a while now, Bitcoin‘s value has been stuck below the $70,000 mark. Efforts to push past this threshold have been fleeting and ineffective, with the cryptocurrency unable to sustain its upward trajectory.
Interestingly, new research revealed that the retail crowd is not here yet.
Bitcoin Retail Crowd Not Here Yet
Based on CryptoQuant’s most recent assessment, the present Bitcoin market cycle hasn’t attained its peak fervor phase yet. A notable feature of past market peaks was the preeminence of coins owned for less than 3 months. This suggests that long-term investors (shrewd money) had previously cashed out. Consequently, the market is currently influenced by speculators and newcomers, leading to increased volatility.
As a researcher studying the current Bitcoin market, I’ve observed that approximately 65% of the realized capital comes from coins held for more than three months. This figure, according to CryptoQuant, aligns with the early phases of past bull markets when a smaller proportion of the realized cap was attributed to shorter-term holders.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that the profit realized by short-term investors, represented by the realized price over seller ratio (SOPR), hasn’t surpassed previous peak levels during market tops in the past. Furthermore, the current market landscape has primarily been shaped by long-term investors who have formed a robust price foundation through their holding positions.
In a subpar market, the scarcity of short-term investors presents an optimistic perspective. This scarcity decreases the likelihood of a sudden shift into a bear market and keeps open the possibility for a price surge.
As a researcher studying market trends, I’ve observed that this market boasts a strong foundation and possesses a limited number of short-term investors. This setup reduces the likelihood of an abrupt shift into a bear market, suggesting that there might be room for a substantial rally before reaching the cycle peak.
Bitcoin Holders Show Fear
As an analyst, I’ve noticed some indications suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) still has room for growth. However, over the past three days, there was a significant decrease in the number of non-empty BTC wallets – a development that aligns with a decline in its price.
According to Santiment, this situation might lead traders to sell off their assets due to anxiety about potential price decreases.
In contrast, Ethereum wallets have persisted in expansion, implying persistent curiosity and hoarding of the largest altcoin. The disparity in wallet development indicates that bitcoin is presently confronted with significant selling forces.
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2024-06-19 08:38