As a researcher with experience in the cryptocurrency market, I’ve closely followed the recent price action of Bitcoin. The asset is currently experiencing a significant downturn, down 23% from its peak price, with most losses occurring over the past week. This trend was predicted based on the assumption that the four-year cycle was too early to peak.
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve observed that Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline recently. Specifically, it’s now 23% lower than its all-time high price. A considerable portion of these losses have occurred within the last week.
The summer crash had been predicted on the premise that the four-year cycle was too early to peak.
Market analyst Benjamin Cowen examined the Bitcoin bull market support band (BMSB) on July 7 as a crucial technical signpost to ascertain whether the digital asset would bounce back later in the year.
BMSB a Key Indicator
I examined the correlation between Bitcoin’s (BTC) trends from 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2023, specifically focusing on its relationship with the Broad Money Supply (BMSB).
As a researcher examining Bitcoin’s market trends, I believe that its performance during Q4 2024 could hinge on its ability to surpass the Bear Market Supporter Base (BMSB) in the upcoming weeks.
In the year 2023, Bitcoin dipped beneath its important support level (BMSB) in August and remained there for some time. Later on, it experienced a significant surge in the last quarter of the year. Nevertheless, after dropping below this threshold, Bitcoin’s value continued to decrease during the fourth quarter of 2019.
The peak of a cycle in the given context is typically reached during the last quarter of the year following the halving event. Consequently, based on this pattern, we might anticipate this occurrence around the year 2025. However, it’s essential to keep in mind that such predictions come with inherent uncertainty and the market trend could potentially veer off course.
Based on my analysis as a crypto investor, if we look at the price trends of previous years like 2019, the Bitcoins Market Size (BMS) may hold resistance for us. However, if we consider the patterns of 2013, 2016, and 2023, then it’s likely that Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass the BMSB in the near future.
As a researcher who had previously discussed the possibility of a Bitcoin summer lull, I’m now pondering over what might transpire next in the market.
As a analyst, my perspective is that the events unfolding in Q4 2024 hinge on Bitcoin’s ability to surpass its bull market support threshold in the coming weeks, or alternatively, if it manages to hold as resistance.
A thread
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) July 7, 2024
As a fellow analyst, I took note on July 8 that Bitcoin was approaching its initial weekly candlestick closure below the lower boundary of its re-accumulation range for the first time since it had been established over the past four months.
I’ve noticed that the asset has been confined to this range since late February with minimal price movement, indicating a period of consolidation. However, recently, the support level at the lower end of this range has given way, causing the price to drop below it.
Based on data from analytics platform CryptoQuant, a large number of long positions have been liquidated this year, signaling potential danger and warranting caution.
As a researcher, I would caution against jumping to the conclusion that “we’ll quickly rebound after this major market correction.” The reason being, historical data shows that it typically takes around two months (from August to October in 2023) before prices begin to recover.
Market crush triggers massive long liquidations
The significant drop in Bitcoin’s ($BTC) price within the recent period has brought substantial losses for long-term investors holding open positions. Notably, the volume of these liquidations stands out as the most extensive in the past twelve months. (By: @marketmakercopy)
Link
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 8, 2024
BTC Price Outlook
As a researcher examining current market trends, I’ve noticed a growing consensus among analysts and investors suggesting a more pessimistic outlook. It appears that we may experience another market dip before reaching a period of consolidation that could last for a couple of months. Following this potential downturn, there is anticipation for another significant movement in the last quarter of the year.
At the point of penning this down, Bitcoin had bounced back to $57,000 after experiencing a slide to $54,320 during the early trading hours in Asia on Monday morning.
At $51,500, there’s a level of support for the price. For it to continue rising, it must surmount the resistance points at $60,000.
Additionally, the upcoming US inflation reports this week may cause further turbulence in the unstable cryptocurrency markets.
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2024-07-09 02:47