Bitcoin on Track For Record Sideways Action, With Eyes on November Elections as Bullish Catalyst

As a seasoned researcher with a decade of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I’ve witnessed many bull runs and bear markets alike. The current situation with Bitcoin, nearing its longest-ever period in a sideways market range since the April halving, is reminiscent of the proverbial calm before the storm.

Bitcoin is approaching a record duration of trading within a flat market trend, which has been ongoing since its halving in April, leaving optimistic investors hoping for a significant fourth-quarter surge feeling somewhat discouraged.

As a dedicated crypto investor, I’ve noticed that it’s been approximately 285 days since the bitcoin halving event occurred. If we don’t witness a significant bull run within the next two weeks, this would represent the longest period of sideways movement following a halving event in history, as pointed out by Ki Young-Ju in his recent post on X.

Approximately every four years, there’s a reduction in the reward given to miners, known as halving in Bitcoin terms. Historically, these halvings have been followed by significant price surges, often seeing the value of the asset rise by multiple hundreds of percent within the ensuing months.

The steady increase in Bitcoin’s value, primarily driven by small-scale investors, is being explained by various factors, such as the unpredictability surrounding the U.S. elections and a resurgence in U.S. Treasury bond interest rates.

According to Augustine Fan, the rise in bond yields and the all-time highs of the SPX are contributing to a strengthening US dollar. However, this strength is coming at the cost of cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin once more hovering near the 60k mark.

Initially, Mt. Gox’s recent announcement that they have postponed their repayment deadline until October 2025 by a year could temporarily ease supply pressures. However, it seems that Bitcoin may be in a stagnant phase as we approach the final weeks of the election, according to Fan’s assessment.

It’s generally perceived that Republican nominee Donald Trump holds a favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies. He is connected with the emerging decentralized finance project, World Liberty Finance, while the Democratic party is often seen as less supportive of the market. Many anticipate a Republican victory to drive up Bitcoin prices further.

In certain periods, markets may adopt a horizontal trend as participants review and adjust their holdings, resulting in an equilibrium between the urge to buy and the desire to sell.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on Bitcoin. To be optimistic about a bullish breakout, it needs to surpass and stay above the $69,000 mark. According to CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole, this move would signal a continuation of the uptrend from the October 2023 lows. If successful, attention would then shift towards the anticipated $100,000 level, a figure heavily speculated by options traders.

Moving sideways may signify phases of gathering (during which investors gradually acquire assets, causing little change in price) or dispersal (when they slowly dispose of their assets in a controlled way). Such stages often result in increased market turbulence.

Bitcoin is transitioning from a traditionally bearish phase during August and September, characterized by minimal investor activity, into a period historically favorable for growth – October. An examination by CoinDesk reveals that the majority of gains typically occur in the latter half of the month, often after October 16th.

However, tensions persist within the market. This week alone, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused several market-making and trading companies day after day, sparking discussions about potential turmoil in the crypto market leading up to the November elections.

(Omkar Godbole contributed insights.)