Bitcoin Bear Trap? Goldman Says Wednesday’s U.S. Jobs Report is Likely to Overstate Weakness

As a seasoned researcher with a knack for deciphering economic data and market trends, I find myself bracing for the upcoming BLS report on Wednesday. With my past experiences of navigating through the intricacies of financial markets, I’ve learned to approach such reports with a grain of salt.

On Wednesday, financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, might experience a high level of activity due to the release of less frequently monitored economic data from the United States. This data is anticipated to portray a discouraging image of the U.S. economy.

On this coming Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to release a tentative figure for the adjustment of the benchmark to the number of monthly nonfarm payrolls (jobs data) from April 2023 to March 2024. This report is usually shared during summer or fall each year.

Based on reports from onlookers, it’s expected that the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) update may show that job growth during the period up to March was less robust than earlier projections indicated.

According to SignalPlus, a technology company specializing in making cryptocurrency options accessible, their Tuesday market update stated that on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to get updated job growth statistics. These figures might suggest that the job growth from last year up until early this year was less robust than earlier calculations indicated.

According to Morgan Stanley’s prediction, there might be a significant decrease in reported payrolls of around 600,000 jobs. This suggests a monthly reduction of approximately 50,000 jobs over the course of the next 12 months up until March.

As an analyst, I anticipate that a significant decrease in job numbers might reignite concerns about a recession. This could prompt investors to move away from high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies and instead seek safer investments, a pattern we saw following the release of the July jobs report earlier this month.

That said, the downward revision could be misleading, according to Goldman Sachs.

As an analyst, I’d rephrase it as follows:

As a seasoned economist with years of experience under my belt, I can attest to the importance of accurate and reliable data when analyzing employment trends. The Quarterly Employment and Wages (QECW) data, derived from unemployment insurance records, is one such valuable resource that helps us make informed decisions. However, it’s worth noting that this data does not include illegal immigrants, who have played a significant role in driving job growth in recent years. While I understand the reasons behind this exclusion, I believe that accounting for their contributions would provide a more comprehensive picture of our labor market dynamics and better reflect the true state of our economy.

Following the release of BLS data, attention will then turn towards the upcoming minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, set to be disclosed at 6:00 PM UTC.

According to Morgan Stanley, they will examine the reasons behind the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deciding to delay considering any adjustments to monetary policy until September and whether a potential 0.5 percentage point reduction in rates was brought up in discussions with their clients on August 18th.