As an experienced analyst in the cryptocurrency market, I have witnessed firsthand the growing trend of tokens with inflated valuations and limited circulating supply. This phenomenon, fueled by private market capital and an optimistic market outlook, has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of price growth for traders following a token generation event (TGE).
Concerns have risen over the surge in popularity among tokens that have a high value but a small initial number in circulation. This trend has led to debates about the long-term profitability for investors who acquire these tokens during their creation or initial coin offering (ICO).
The latest report from Binance Research reveals a growing pattern of new tokens entering the market with smaller circulating supplies and overvalued prices.
High Valuation, Low Liquidity Crisis
A large inflow of investment from the private market, combined with optimistic market expectations and generous valuations, has led to the trend of new cryptocurrency tokens being introduced at significantly high fully diluted values.
The report predicts that approximately $155 billion in tokens are expected to be released into the market between 2024 and 2030. If demand from buyers and investment capital do not grow proportionately during this period, there is a risk of excessive selling pressure building up. According to the report, this could put a strain on the market’s capacity to absorb these tokens without causing a decline in prices.
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve observed that under bullish conditions, newly launched tokens can experience swift price increases due to limited availability for trading at their inception. However, this growth is unlikely to persist once a large influx of tokens enters the market upon unlocking.
The study underscores the growing disparity between market capitalizations (MC) and fully diluted valuations (FDVs) for tokens issued within the past three years. By 2024, FDVs are predicted to surpass the totals of 2023. Newly launched tokens in 2024 exhibit an average MC/FDV ratio of merely 12.3%, indicating a potential demand influx of approximately $80 billion to offset future supply expansions and preserve current price levels.
It seems that these tokens have experienced significant price increases mainly due to recent launches with very small circulating supplies, typically less than 20% of the total supply. Since most of the tokens are locked up, their estimated market values (FDVs) exceed their actual market caps.
Addressing The Trend
According to previous reports, more than 80% of the recently added cryptocurrencies on Binance have seen a decrease in value.
Many tokens recently added to Binance’s listings are supported by well-known venture capital firms, which value these projects at significantly high prices even before their public debut, with an average fully diluted valuation over $4.2 billion and some reaching above $11 billion. However, these projects often lack a substantial user base or strong community engagement.
As an analyst, I’d advocate for a more balanced approach to the increasing trend of new tokens launching at steep valuations with limited initial circulating supplies. Binance aims to play a pivotal role in cultivating a thriving and sustainable market ecosystem. To achieve this goal, we will proactively reach out to promising small to medium-sized projects and extend invitations for them to join our listing initiatives such as direct listings, Launchpools, and Megadrops. By doing so, we aim to promote a more equitable distribution of opportunities within the crypto market.
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2024-05-26 07:22